Elections expert expects state to lose a congressional seat

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- An expert on congressional reapportionment expects Missouri to be one of eight states that will lose a seat in Congress because of its census count.

But a Missouri congressman involved with an effort to increase census participation in the state said there is a good possibility that Missouri will hold on to all of its nine seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Kimball Brace of Election Data Services of Manassas, Va., told an audience at a redistricting seminar of the National Conference of State Legislatures in Providence, R.I., last weekend that Minnesota will overtake Missouri in its census count and will not lose a seat in its' congressional delegation.

Brace made his prediction after his firm studied census trends from across the nation. In addition to Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania would each lose one seat. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington would each gain one seat, Brace said.

Texas would pick up four seats in Congress; Florida would gain two. New York and Ohio would both lose two seats, according to Brace's research.

All the information in Brace's research is preliminary. Final census figures will not be released until December.

Earlier this year, Brace predicted that Missouri would lose a seat after 72 percent of the state's residents returned census data through the mail, compared to 80 percent participation by Minnesota residents. In his report to the NCSL, Brace cited further information from a private-sector demographic firm.

But Missouri 9th District congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer, a Republican, said he received a report indicating that the state's door-to-door efforts will bolster the state's position despite the weaker mail-in showing.

"I don't know what figures [Brace] is looking at, but the reports I'm getting is that our numbers are good," Luetkemeyer said.

Missouri congressman Lacy Clay, a Democrat, is the chairman of the congressional subcommittee that oversees the national census. Clay spearheaded efforts in Missouri to count as many Missourians as possible during door-to-door efforts starting in April, Luetkemeyer said.

"In talking with Congressman Clay, he feels pretty good about the fact that our percentage of completion of reports is better than Minnesota's," Luetkemeyer said.

Clay was in transit between St. Louis and Washington, D.C., Monday and was not available for comment.

If Missouri loses a congressional seat, it would be the second time in the last 30 years. In 1980, Missouri had 10 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Following the reapportionment process, the House seat of Rep. Wendell Bailey was dissolved. Bailey then ran against Rep. Ike Skelton in the election of 1982 and lost.

Once the final census figures are released, the 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be apportioned, and the states will revise their congressional maps in time for the 2012 election.

In Missouri, a House committee will file a bill that will describe the boundaries of the new congressional districts. If passed, the Senate and the House would then try to come to some kind of consensus before the end of the legislative session. The bill would then go to the governor for his signature. If the legislature cannot draft a map that suits both houses, or if the governor vetoes the map and the legislature cannot override the veto, the job is turned over to a non-partisan group of judges who will draw the congressional district boundaries.

The latter scenario played out in 1981, when the legislature, which was dominated by Democrats, drafted a map that was vetoed by then-governor Kit Bond, a Republican.

A similar scenario, except driven by Republican legislators and a Democratic governor, could unfold in 2011.

If the state drops an electoral vote, it sacrifices power, Luetkemeyer said.

"We often vote together en bloc, and quite obviously, you lose one vote, you're not quite as effective as you were," said Luetkemeyer. "Any time you lose a vote, it impacts you, and that's why we worked so hard to make sure everybody was counted out there."

In terms of his own vulnerability, Luetkemeyer said he is not concerned because the Ninth District is one of the few in the state where the population is growing.