DESPITE PRIMARY, BUSH WILL PREVAIL, SAY LEADERS

Republican leaders in Southeast Missouri agreed Wednesday that voters of New Hampshire sent President George Bush a message, but all are confident the president will survive if he heeds the warning.

Most said they were surprised by the showing of Patrick Buchanan in the nation's first presidential primary of 1992, but they also expressed doubts about whether Buchanan is capable of being president.

"I was a little surprised at the strength of Pat Buchanan, but I think it was a message to the president that there are a lot of unhappy, disgruntled people who want to see a change," said Rep. Mary Kasten, R-Cape Girardeau. "Maybe it was a message to all of us who are in legislatures that people are feeling disen~franchised.

"I don't think New Hampshire is particularly a microcosm of the nation; I think this was a waking up to the issues and the beginning of a hard, tough campaign for everybody. I think he'll (Bush) triumph in the end."

Rep. David Schwab, R-Jackson, added, "I thought it was interesting that Buchanan did as well as he did. It shows people are concerned about the economy and the growth of government. But I don't think at this point we could say he's (Bush) in trouble. I think he's going to be out campaigning more and I expect him to be re-elected."

Kasten and Schwab agree that Tuesday's outcome was partly a conservative backlash against Bush for abandoning his no-tax pledge of the 1988 campaign.

Democrats around the area were generally pleased that Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton made a strong second place showing in New Hampshire, viewing that as an indication the governor has been able to overcome negative publicity that had plagued him earlier this year.

Most also do not expect former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas to fare well outside the east.

Rep. Mark Richardson, R-Poplar Bluff, said he was surprised the way Clinton did.

As for the Republican primary, Richardson said, "I think the significant exit poll for Republicans to look at was that 50 percent of the people voting for Buchanan said they did it to send a message to George Bush, not because they seriously favored Buchanan for president.

"I think you'll see Bush taking on Buchanan as if he is an opponent for the first time. George Bush is going to be the Republican nominee and I think everybody knows that. Pat Buchanan knows that; but he is just using this opportunity to pull Bush back over more to the conservative side."

Richardson said that normally if a candidate wins by 18 percentage points, it is considered a landslide. "But everyone is calling Bush a big loser," he observed.

Blair Moran of Sikeston, chairman of the 8th District Republican Committee, said he has no doubts that Bush "is still on track to win. I think he's still electable, it just won't be as easy as it was right after the Persian Gulf War."

Moran said he personally supports Bush and doubts Buchanan is electable in a presidential race.

"It looks like the president has his work cut out for him. He should not have caved in to liberal Democrats on the pledge of `read my lips, no new taxes.' Had he not done that, he would not have problems with the conservative wing of our party right now," said Moran.

Moran agrees the economy is another reason for Bush's poor showing, but believes as the campaign moves south, Buchanan will be in for a rough time when he tries to explain his opposition to the gulf war.

Moran's Democratic counterpart, R. Todd McBride of Cape Girardeau, took heart in polls showing that a lot of New Hampshire voters would not support Bush in November.

"The main thing is, there is an awful lot of disenchantment for President Bush from people who feel we are going in the wrong direction and need to make some changes," said McBride. "That's the big news."

McBride said he was also encouraged by Clinton's showing and believes he is back on track to reclaim frontrunner status.

Sen. Jerry Howard, D-Dexter, who is among over 60 state legislators who have already endorsed Clinton, said he was pleased with Tuesday's results. "It shows a decided lack of confidence in President Bush and a decided interest in the candidacy of Gov. Clinton.

"I believe when we move out of the northeast and into the real world that Gov. Clinton's candidacy will become even more important to us in middle America."

Howard noted that when he signed on with Clinton, "I did so assuming there will be no other presidential candidates. Right now I think Gov. Clinton has the best credentials, has the intelligence to carry out the job, and the fortitude and youth needed in the presidency now in these troubled times."

Cape Girardeau County Auditor H. Weldon Macke, a Republican, said Tuesday's outcome should not be viewed as "an astounding victory" for Buchanan, but rather be viewed by Bush as "a slap on the hand."

Macke said he believes the outcome reflects a clear signal from voters they want the president to devote more time to domestic problems instead of foreign affairs.

"I would think that when you've got somebody who comes up and gets that close to you when you are the sitting president, maybe it is an indication you ought to look over your shoulder and wonder whether you are doing everything right," he observed.

Macke said he does not know much about Buchanan and could not say whether he would be a good president.

Area Republicans do not believe Buchanan's strong showing will prompt a more prominent conservative to consider entering the race for the GOP nomination.

However, Richardson said it could force Bush to reassess whether to continue with Vice President Dan Quayle as his running mate.

"Something that would not surprise me is if Buchanan runs well in the next 3-4 primaries we might see Quayle get dumped for someone like Jack Kemp," suggested Richardson.

Richardson said he believes Republican members of the Missouri legislature are still solidly behind Bush.

"Most Republican representatives don't see this nearly with the alarm or interest that the national press seems to be giving it. Close political observers see it for what it is, and they are not really upset over what Buchanan is doing.

"In the long run, it will help the Republican Party."