Despite hot races, voter turnout expected to be average for midterm election

A Cape Girardeau casino, Jackson's proposed sales tax measure and the race between Republican incumbent Jo Ann Emerson and Democrat Tommy Sowers for the 8th District U.S. House seat are expected to be the big draws for voters Tuesday.

Still, turnout isn't expected to be higher than historical averages for midterm elections that lack the star power of a presidential campaign.

Cape Girardeau County Clerk Kara Clark Summers predicts 58 percent of the county's 51,808 registered voters will cast ballots Tuesday, a number in line with the last midterm election in 2006, but about 20 percent less than those who voted in 2008's presidential race.

"It should be a pretty good turnout," Summers said. "It's not going to be as high as I would like, of course. I would like it to be 100 percent. But I think our turnout will be better than the counties around us."

If Summers' 58 percent prediction bears out, that means about 30,000 county voters will cast ballots Tuesday. Summers said her office had already collected 1,000 absentee ballots.

Predictions call for Scott County to see a 52 percent voter turnout, Bollinger County to have a 45 percent turnout and Perry County 51 percent. Polling places will be open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday.

The big draw for voters will be local issues, Summers said.

Jackson voters will be asked to consider a quarter-cent sales tax to fund operations at the city's current and proposed fire station. Cape Girardeau County voters will also pick a new presiding commissioner, a race between Republican Clint Tracy and Democrat Pat Wissman to replace Gerald Jones.

In Cape Girardeau, voters will be asked to settle a hotly debated casino measure that, if approved, would keep the city in contention for the state's 13th and final gaming license.

Statewide, the big election is between Republican Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan, both vying to take over the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Kit Bond.

Not to mention three constitutional amendments and two propositions that will appear on ballots statewide. The constitutional amendments ask voters to consider measures on electing or appointing county assessors, whether former prisoner-of-war veterans should pay property taxes and the implementation of a real estate transfer tax. Proposition A focuses on earnings taxes, which are now only collected in St. Louis and Kansas City. If approved, Proposition A would require voters there to vote next spring on whether to continue the tax or not. Proposition B would impose restrictions on dog breeders.

Statewide predictions call for 51 percent of Missouri's registered voters to head out to the polls during Tuesday's general election. If the 51 percent prediction is met, more than 2.1 million votes will be cast in Missouri's election. There are 4.1 million Missourians registered to vote, including more than 105,000 first-time voters and more than 600,000 Missourians who updated their name or address to prepare for Election Day.

Midterm elections historically attract about half of those registered to vote in Missouri. In 1998, 43 percent of voters cast ballots; in 2002 turnout grew to 51 percent; and in 2006 turnout was about 53 percent.

Cape Girardeau has, as is typical, been a focal point of many statewide elections as well, with U.S. Senate candidates Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan paying visits within the last week. Emerson and Blunt met with supporters in Cape Girardeau, both looking for what they called an end to "the Obama-Pelosi big government, jobs-killing agenda."

Sowers and Carnahan both visited Cape Girardeau in the days leading up to the election. Carnahan, who is Missouri's secretary of state, walked in cowboy boots downtown last week, stopping into shops and restaurants to share her message that Washington politicians were largely to blame for the nation's ills.

Sowers, perhaps Emerson's first serious challenger in her 14-year political career, was busy canvassing all of the 8th District's 28 counties in the week leading up to the election.

Jeremy Walling, an associate professor who teaches political science at Southeast Missouri State University, said hot-button issues will draw voters out, whether it's the anti-presidential movement that often comes in midterm elections or a local issue like the casino.

"We live in a place that tends to be overwhelmingly Republican," Walling said. "I think when you look at a place that is so overwhelmingly lopsided, it suppresses the turnout of the Democrats. They say, 'What's the point? My guy's not going to win anyway.' Something like the casino can draw them out."

smoyers@semissourian.com

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