CLINTON'S DILEMMA ON VIEW TONIGHT, SAY SCHOLARS

The president's State of the Union address tonight could be Bill Clinton's most important speech or his most irrelevant, depending on what develops today, said scholars at Southeast Missouri State University.

Tom Harte, chairman of the department of speech communication and theater, said, "No one is really interested in the State of the Union, the issues he is supposed to talk about."

The story of the president's alleged relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky is unfolding at such tremendous speed that three university professors say it is tough to predict what comes next.

"The whole world has become `Geraldo-ized' with an interest in the president's personal life," said Dr. Peter Bergerson, chairman of the political science department at Southeast.

Rumors and discussions about the sexual behavior of the president have circulated before, but never at a national or international level. "This has literally overwhelmed the news," Bergerson said.

Viewers are likely to tune in for the speech to see if the president makes reference to the scandal and to see how the president is received.

"I'm sure the Republican reaction will be cool," Harte said. "But it will be interesting to see what the general reaction is. I think he will not be treated as a conquering hero."

"People will also be watching the speech for his manner, his enthusiasm, his vim and vigor," Bergerson said. "If he looks drawn or tired, if his delivery is not good, it will be blamed on the news events surrounding his legal problems."

Dr. Mitchel Gerber, political scientist at Southeast, said the president likely will take the opportunity with tonight's speech to focus attention on a national agenda and to establish a presidential legacy for the remainder of his term.

"He may use a Reagan-like theme, `Do you feel better now than in previous years?' He'll probably talk about the economy and relative prosperity, the deficit reduction, welfare reform and many other proposed initiatives."

Early drafts of the speech called for a theme about restoration of truth in government, Gerber said. But that theme may not appear in the final draft.

"Over the past years trust in government has gone up," Gerber said.

"During the last three presidencies we've seen an increase away from Watergate and mistrust of government in general. But all that may collapse under the latest scandal."

While the office of the president has long been fraught with scandals, none has played out so entirely on front pages, news channels and the Internet.

"There have been problems with the personal lives of other presidents, but never has there been anywhere near the attention shown that has been shown to this," said Bergerson. "And we've seen attention to this at the expense of nearly everything else, including a fairly active discussion about going to military action against Iraq."

Harte agreed that the speed at which this story has developed makes it unique to this presidency.

During the Watergate scandal, developments took weeks to unfold. "This has literally mushroomed overnight," Harte said.

The difference today is access to information.

"It's not that the early presidents didn't behave in scandalous ways; word just didn't get around," Harte said. "What would have happened if the media had been around when Lincoln was often depressed sometimes suicidal?"

Harte said: "It was a bargain people made with him when he was elected. They knew he wasn't pure as the driven snow, but they expected him to behave while in office."

Scandals surrounding John F. Kennedy didn't surface while he was in office. "If anyone had really known about John Kennedy during the nomination process, well... ."

During the short period of time that Kennedy was in office, there was never any large-scale discussion of his personal life. Bergerson said a different standard existed for what the news media covered and what they didn't.

"At that time the office of the presidency was so revered and respected that this was beyond the realm of consideration, I think," he said.

Bergerson said the situation isn't hopeless for Clinton, but reclaiming public confidence will be tough.

"One of the things to be an effective president is that you must have moral leadership," Bergerson said. "Right now I think that's a pretty tough call. The question is, Is this situation Teflon or Velcro: Will it slide off as the other accusations have or is this the one that's going to really stick?"

Unless Clinton is completely vindicated, Harte sees Clinton's power during the rest of his term as weakened. "But I can't see him resigning."

Gerber said Clinton's presidency can survive if the allegations proved false and maybe even if the affairs prove to be true and he admits them. But if facts show that the president did compel the intern to lie, and in doing so obstructed justice, a resignation or impeachment could be in store.

"I think there has been a lot of rushing to judgment," Gerber said. "We need to back off until we see the evidence."