Chinese leader Hu Jintao has smooth rise to power

BEIJING -- China's new president, Hu Jintao, has moved rapidly to solidify his hold on power and, seven months after becoming Communist Party chief, has defied predictions that he would labor under the shadow of his predecessor.

Hu has profited from crises -- China's battle against SARS and an extremely sensitive corruption investigation in Shanghai, the analysts said. In foreign, domestic and military affairs, he has moved decisively to distinguish himself from the old government, led by Jiang Zemin. And Hu has so far avoided the mistake made by two fallen Communist Party chiefs: He is carrying out this political rise without slighting Jiang.

"We used to be worried that Hu would not succeed as a politician," said Shi Yinhong, a professor of political science at People's University. "We are not worried anymore." Hu's rise has been so smooth that it has led some to hope that he will push significant political reforms of the communist system.

He has backed experiments in limited political change, the first such experimentation in years. He has established a group to revise the constitution, possibly to protect private property.

Nothing in the biography of Hu points to a man ready to dismantle Communist Party rule. Hu is interested not in creating a democracy, but in "improving the efficiency of the state," Shi said.

Nonetheless, the analysts said, Hu's rise has helped broaden the terms of political discourse here. For the first time in years, normally conservative Communist Party publications are writing about the need for significant political openness. Hu is expected to float several plans for limited political restructuring in a speech on Tuesday marking the 82nd anniversary of the Communist Party.

A trial balloon was floated in the weekly magazine Seeking Truth, which published an article on democracy inside the party. The lesson of the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union, the article said, is that "the failure to develop the economy and improve people's livelihood is a dead end and the failure to reform the political system is also a dead end." Political change, it said, is the only "practical choice" of the party.

The essay proposed experiments in increasing internal party democracy, including holding competitive elections for some important positions and opening certain decisions to more participation from rank-and-file party members -- not exactly popular democracy, but small steps toward opening China's system.

Du Gangjian, a professor at the National School of Administration whose students have included current government officials, predicted that Hu will push ahead with a revision of the constitution, expansion of democracy inside the Communist Party and some loosening of controls on the media. Du said Hu is responding to necessity. The government, he said, has made enormous strides over the past 25 years with its economic program, and the economy has quadrupled in size. But "we need to move up a step," Du said. "We cannot use the old system to confront China's new problems." Hu was appointed general secretary of the Communist Party following its 16th Congress in November. He became president in March. Jiang, Hu's predecessor in both positions, stacked the nine-member Standing Committee of the Politburo, the party's most powerful body, with at least five allies. Jiang also retained his job as head of the Central Military Commission, which controls the military.

In the party, Hu was surrounded by Jiang's allies. Many observers and Chinese officials predicted that it would take Hu years to win power. Hu was especially vulnerable in the first months of his tenure, said Wu Guoguang, a former government official now at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Wu said Jiang would have been able to remove Hu easily and replace him with an ally. Possible contenders were Wu Bangguo, the head of China's legislature and second in the party hierarchy, and Jiang's former right-hand man, current Vice President Zeng Qinghong, the fifth-ranking party member.

"But that's not the case anymore," Wu said. "Hu has very quickly consolidated his position and as time passes his power will grow." Indeed, Hu now heads three of the country's most important "leading groups" within the party, dealing with U.S.-China relations, Taiwan and the economy, party sources said. In May, Hu also chaired a meeting of the Politburo on military reorganization, the first major meeting on the military not attended by Jiang.

A key factor in Hu's rise has been his handling of the SARS epidemic, analysts and government sources said. He was the impetus behind the change of policy in mid-April, away from a coverup and toward the launching of a decisive fight against severe acute respiratory syndrome, government sources said.