Chinese grads flood job market that has little to offer

HANGZHOU, China -- Lai Chuanlong frowned anxiously as he waited his turn among the hordes of recent college graduates, all jostling for a chance to sit on a folding chair opposite a recruiter from a local company.

Tall and slim, he held his shoulders erect as a protective barrier against those with designs on cutting in front. He was concentrating on the objective at hand -- gaining a place in the white-collar world that only last year seemed guaranteed for a holder of a college degree in modern-day China. No longer.

Like many of the thousands of other graduates here, Lai, 24, was the first in his family to attend college, the son of illiterate villagers who borrowed heavily to pay for his education. It seemed a no-risk investment in a brighter future. Two months after his graduation, however, prospects remain bleak.

Other than a brief stint as a factory laborer and a job offer at a supermarket for about $2 per day, Lai has found no work. At the job fair, he added his resume to piles of them, hoping to secure a job that pays $100 a month.

"Going to college was my dream, but the pressure to find a job is getting intense," Lai said. "I'm getting more and more nervous."

Throughout the world's most populous country, a dramatic surge in the number of college graduates has created fierce competition for the relatively high-paying office jobs that were once conveyed almost by right to anyone with a university degree. Where once college graduation ensured passage into the ranks of a privileged elite, this year it became a gateway to worry, diminished hopes and the prospect of unemployment -- the result not only of larger class sizes but also of lowered educational standards at newer institutions.

The spread of free enterprise into every crevice of once-Maoist China has unleashed a wave of for-profit private colleges that cater to those denied admission to established universities. They charge tuitions exorbitant by traditional standards for degrees that are proving of limited value. All of this has intensified labor pressures in a society struggling with its transition to a market economy.

Policy problem

The stress and uncertainty now plaguing China's best and brightest, a group conditioned by years of growth to anticipate upward mobility, is in large part the result of a policy that was, ironically, designed to limit unemployment. Four years ago, the government introduced a policy aimed at doubling the number of college students nationwide, reasoning that this would unleash more than $12 billion in domestic spending, creating jobs in industries such as construction, travel and food service. It would also postpone the entry into the job market of 2 million to 3 million young people at a time when bankrupt state factories were shutting their doors.

Some government officials feared the policy would dilute the quality of Chinese education while merely deferring the unemployment problem, but it was adopted. From 1998 to 2001, the number of college and university students nearly doubled, jumping from 6.4 million to 12.1 million, according to the official People's Daily newspaper. Last year, the number increased to 14 million. Since 1999, 67 new private universities and colleges, as well as new schools affiliated with existing universities, have sprung up.

This year, the societal bill came due: The first expanded class to enter college under the new policy graduated and went out in search of work -- more than 2 million people, according to the Ministry of Education, nearly 50 percent more than the year before. The surge has outstripped the economy's ability to provide good jobs. While China continues to grow faster than any large economy in the world, much of the activity is driven by a government-funded public works boom, as well as by export-centered factory production. White-collar jobs are increasing, but not fast enough.

The government has also blamed the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome for exacerbating the problem. Many job fairs were canceled in the spring because of the deadly virus, denying graduates access to interviews. The situation is worst at China's lesser institutions, where, on some campuses, more than half of those who graduated have yet to find jobs, according to state media reports. But even those graduating from China's most elite universities are feeling the effects. Only 70 percent of Beijing University graduates had found work in June. On a recent afternoon at Fudan University in Shanghai -- one of the most selective campuses in the country _ students were lined up three deep inside a job-placement center for a chance to scan the latest listings.

"Most of us here have had big dreams," said 22-year-old Wu Di, a senior who was then about to graduate with a degree in management science.