Chief inspectors reflect on inspections so far

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- What if war comes to Iraq, Hans Blix asked, and after all the death and destruction American troops found few banned weapons here?

"It would be paradoxical," the Swedish disarmament specialist said.

A war also would come at a cost of upheaval in an unstable region that can little afford it, added his Egyptian partner, Mohamed ElBaradei.

"We think in our hearts, we believe that we need to avoid war, not only to prove that inspections can work, but because war is a sign of failure," ElBaradei said.

The two chief U.N. arms inspectors spoke with The Associated Press in an exclusive joint interview Sunday after a demanding two days of talks with Iraqi officials to move the 2-month-old weapons inspections process forward.

Working together

They spoke of both the short term -- of "inching" ahead in the weekend talks -- and of the longer term, looking ahead to months of work for their inspectors in ensuring that Iraq no longer has chemical, biological or nuclear weapons programs.

The two international lawyers work and talk together seamlessly.

They're old colleagues and friends. ElBaradei, 62, served as Blix's top lawyer when the former Swedish foreign minister, who is 74, ran the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, from 1981 to 1997. Then the counselor took over the Vienna-based agency himself when Blix left in 1997.

Two years later, Blix was named chairman of the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, taking on the tough job of trying to certify Iraq's disarmament under U.N. resolutions dating back to 1991.

Solving problems

Of the weekend talks, Blix said Iraqi officials in the past had "belittled" the unanswered questions remaining from the 1990s about whether Iraq could prove it had destroyed such doomsday weapons as anthrax and VX nerve gas. But this weekend, he said, "for the first time I think they were focusing upon these issues. ... I think that is hopeful."

"What we see is the beginning of Iraq taking these issues very seriously or very much at heart," ElBaradei said, "and try to come up with creative ways to solve these issues."

Baghdad turned documents over to them this weekend that the Iraqis said should help answer some questions. The Iraqis also said they would establish national commissions to search for proscribed weapons and relevant documents.

Blix and ElBaradei were reminded of recent statements by high-level U.S. officials that the "game is over" in the Iraq crisis, and that war is close at hand, and of the U.S. references to "so-called inspections" in Iraq. The remarks clearly displeased both men, who responded characteristically -- Blix with cool precision, ElBaradei with more passion.

"Well, we work not for U.S. high officials but for the Security Council," said Blix, going on to detail the mandates and time frames envisioned by the United Nations.

"I might start by saying I've been hearing again (about) the 'so-called inspections' by some," ElBaradei said. "This is an oversimplification." He recounted the half-century of nuclear inspections worldwide by his IAEA, including its work -- under Blix -- in uncovering the North Korean nuclear weapons program in the early 1990s.

"We should not -- in our impatience to make sure Iraq is disarmed -- denigrate the inspections. ... To expect a country to completely disarm and verify that disarmament in eight weeks is again oversimplification."

"People have to understand that inspections do take time. But if they work, it's a much better alternative to war, where you could have ramifications for decades."

Blix, whose work in disarmament began over 40 years ago, reflected on the historic turning point the world faces in Iraq.

"The paradoxical thing is we don't really know whether there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq," he said. "Some people seem to think there may be some, very little.

"It would be in my view very paradoxical if Iraq were to pull on itself a war and destruction for some limited quantity. It would also be paradoxical, I think, if the rest of the world were waging the war at a tremendous cost, and in the end find there was very little."

He said the U.N. inspections here are costing $80 million on an annual basis, with a staff of some 200. He noted estimates that a U.S. war against Iraq might cost over $100 billion and involve some 200,000 troops.

"And the political, economic and social ramifications," ElBaradei interjected, "in an area that's already a hotbed of instability."

"So there is some stark difference between the options," said Blix.