CAN THIS BE OCTOBER? SUMMER WARMTH LINGERS

Hot and dry aren't adjectives usually associated with autumn, but that's the weather we're getting.

Monday's high reached a balmy 86 degrees, as did the high on Sunday. Temperatures usually reach into the lower 80s this time of year.

It's probably too soon to blame all the warmth on El Nino, a local weather expert says. Instead, blame it on the jet stream, said Dr. Al Robertson, a climatologist at Southeast Missouri State University.

The jet stream is "remaining well to the north, and it's taking all the storm tracks directly north to the north and west, so it's missing us," Robertson said. "So we're stuck with this tropical air, and this wind from the southwest keeps bringing in warm air."

If it's any consolation, recent temperatures haven't set any records, Robertson said. High marks for October reach into the 90s.

"It's just been unusually warm," he said. "They've had some record highs in Iowa and northern Illinois, but not down here."

Today's forecast again calls for temperatures in the middle 80s, with partly cloudy skies.

Things will cool off a little Wednesday, but don't break out the hot cider and sweaters just yet. The high temperature still should reach about 80, the National Weather Service said.

El Nino, the weather phenomenon now forming in the Pacific, probably hasn't caused the warm weather, Robertson said. There is a great deal of speculation on what the mass of warm, wet air will mean in the Midwest. Weather experts are divided into two camps, Robertson said.

"One trend of thought would be that we could have a drier than usual winter but average temperatures," he said. "The other one is that if it builds up as strong as people think it could it could be colder but with more snow."

Robertson leans toward the colder, snowier scenario.

"It'll probably just be a few more snowstorms pushing through," he said. "Instead of getting 11 or 12 inches for the season, we may get 16 or 17 inches of snow for the season."

The strongest El Nino on record occurred in the winter of 1982-83, and winter that season was milder than usual, Robertson said.

"But the winter following it, '84-'85, was very, very cold, so we sort of got hit a year later."

Predictions are still up in the air at this point. While fishermen are reporting catching tropical fish in northern California waters and sharks have been spotted near San Francisco, there are also indications that La Nina -- a mass of cold, dry air that constitutes El Nino's opposite number -- is forming west of Hawaii.

"So who knows?" Robertson said.