Bush's Iraq trip shows power of an incumbent

WASHINGTON -- President Bush's surprise Thanksgiving trip to Baghdad served as a crash course on the power of presidential incumbency.

While Bush tied himself even more closely to the outcome of a war that has dragged on, he reinforced his role as commander in chief before cheering troops -- an image his Democratic opponents can't match.

The visit to a mess hall at Baghdad International Airport came at the end of an increasingly violent month for U.S. troops in Iraq.

An American soldier died Friday when guerrillas shelled a military base in the northern city of Mosul and more than 70 U.S. troops have been killed in hostile action in November, more than in any other month since the administration declared an end to major combat on May 1.

Public doubts about the aftermath of the Iraq war have been growing -- along with the casualties. But Bush's trip offered a blunt reminder about the president's ability to control events -- at least in the short-term.

"Democrats got a real lesson in what it means to run against an incumbent president," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. "He can change the headlines anytime he wants to -- how do you fight against this? He can do it next October."

The phrase "October surprise" has become a part of the political campaign lexicon -- the notion that an incumbent president can make some major announcement or take some substantial action in the monthlong run up to Election Day.

One effect of the visit was to link Bush even more closely to war he said the nation had to fight, although his administration already had very high stakes in the outcome. An earlier image of Bush with the troops -- his trip to an aircraft carrier May 1 with a banner proclaiming "Mission Accomplished" in the background -- generated criticism about a premature celebration.

The Thanksgiving Baghdad visit provided new filmed images likely to be more useful in campaign ads next year. It's too early to know how the general public will react to his Baghdad trip, however.

"The president's fortunes are tied to Iraq," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. "To the extent that he can communicate his concerns about the troops, make the right decisions there and be compassionate, it helps him."

Bush's service in the Texas Air National Guard never resulted in any combat experience.

But his connection with the current military makes the job more difficult for Democratic candidates like John Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran, and Wesley Clark, former NATO commander, to draw a sharp contrast with Bush as leader of the military in wartime.

His rivals were cautious Friday when reacting to his trip.

"I don't have anything political or partisan to say about it," said Democrat Joe Lieberman as he campaigned for his party's presidential nomination in New Hampshire. "There are days when you have to say, we're not Republicans, we're not Democrats. We are Americans. "

Kerry, also campaigning in New Hampshire, said: "I thought it was terrific. I think it's the right thing for a president to do." Candidate John Edwards, said through his spokeswoman: "I believe President Bush's visit to the troops was a nice thing to do, but unless this visit is followed by a change in policy that brings in our allies and truly internationalizes the effort, our mission is not going to be successful."