BARRING HEAVY RAIN, RIVER SHOULD NOT FLOOD

Chances of major flooding from melting snow running into the Mississippi River this year are rated at "nil or none," a spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers said.

But the Corps and the National Weather Service cautioned that does not mean serious flooding on the Mississippi, Missouri or Ohio rivers could not occur from other causes.

Ray Kopsky, hydraulic engineer with the potomology section of the Corps' St. Louis District office, said unusually warm temperatures in late February and early March caused what snow was on the ground to melt by mid-March.

"We've already experienced all of the winter snow melt and runoff into the Mississippi last month," said Kopsky. "Of course, if more snow falls in the upper-Mississippi-River-basin states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois, the potential for flooding is there, but the amount of snow would have to be significant to have any major flood impact downstream."

Kopsky said any serious flood potential the rest of the year along the Missouri, Illinois, Mississippi and Ohio rivers will come from heavy rains that might occur in the upper watersheds of each river. Both the April and 90-day April-June weather outlooks indicate below to near normal rain for the upper Mississippi and Missouri River valley areas.

Jack Burns of the National Weather Service's river forecast office at St. Charles, said short-term rainfall patterns could also cause serious flooding on the rivers. Burns said if a stationary frontal system were to stall over Iowa and Illinois or Missouri and Illinois, it could generate clusters of thunderstorms. If those storms generated 4-6 inch rains, they would cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly, especially if the ground were already saturated with moisture, he said.

"It has happened on more than one occasion in the past," Burns said. "We had very little spring snow-melt runoff, but a stalled weather front generated enough rain to cause some serious flooding on the Missouri and Mississippi. These are events you just can't forecast a month or two in advance."

Records show there hasn't been serious flooding along the Mississippi River between St. Louis and Cairo since 1990. Flood stage at Cape Girardeau is 32 feet, but serious flooding does not occur in unprotected areas north and south of the city until the river reaches 36 to 37 feet.

In 1990 the river rose above flood stage on May 18, and did not drop below 32 feet until June 4. The river peaked that year at Cape Girardeau at 39.6 feet on May 21. On June 22, the river here rose above flood stage for a second time, and remained there until July 4.

Last year the river did not go above flood stage, having reached 31.7 feet on April 20. Since Jan. 1, the highest the river has risen is 27.4 feet on March 24.

Although many people believe major flooding on the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau only occurs during the spring months, records show otherwise.

While the majority of major floods during the 95-year period from 1896-1990 have occurred during March, April, May and June, other damaging floods have occurred in October and December.

On Dec. 10, 1982, the river crested here at 43.5 feet, causing flooding along both unprotected sides of the river and along the Diversion Channel as far west as Allenville, where residents had to evacuate after all roads into the small community north of Delta were cut by high water.

On Oct. 11, 1986, the Mississippi at Cape Girardeau peaked at 42.06 feet. In July 1969, the river here crested at 39.2 feet. In each of these occurrences, the flooding was caused by prolonged periods of wet, stormy weather to the north of St. Louis.

In contrast, major flooding that occurs in the spring months is usually a combination of spring snow-melt runoff that may or may not be associated with wet, stormy weather farther south.

Some of the notable damaging floods that have occurred at Cape Girardeau since 1927 include:

April 20, 1927, 39.9 feet

May 27, 1943, 42.3 feet

May 3, 1944, 40.7 feet

July 5-6, 1947, 41.8 feet

July 24, 1951, 41.8 feet

May 2-3, 1952, 38.3 feet

April 12, 1960, 38.4 feet

May 13, 1961, 39.5 feet

March 27, 1962, 36.2 feet

April 17, 1979, 44.5 feet

May 6, 1983, 44.9 feet

April 27, 1984, 38.9 feet

March 1, 1985, 41.1 feet.

The all-time record flood at Cape Girardeau occurred on May 1, 1973, when the river crested here at 45.6 feet.

Until completion of the 7,200-foot, $4 million earthen levee and concrete floodwall from Sloans Creek south to the river bridge in 1958 and 1964, much of the residential and commercial business area near the river was subject to damaging floods when it rose above 36 feet.

C.A. Juden Jr. of the Main Street Levee District said floodwaters from the Mississippi would cover the intersection of Main and Independence and several buildings in that area when the river reached 36 feet. At about 37 feet, Juden said the river would enter the basement of the former Buckner-Ragsdale Building.

Before the floodwall was completed, floodwaters would often reach as far as the middle of the no-hundred block of North Main and the intersection of Spanish and Independence. Water Street from Independence to Broadway and beyond lived up to its name, looking more like a canal in Venice.