Area officials expect to see gains when census numbers are released this week

On the eve of the release of Missouri's 2010 census data, government officials from Cape Girardeau County and its two biggest communities expect to see population gains. The question now, they say, is not a matter of where but how much.

The U.S. Census Bureau is expected to ship detailed population data to state leadership -- the governor and the legislature's majority and minority leaders -- this week, and the numbers could arrive as soon as today.

The bureau will provide summaries of population totals, as well as data on race, origin and voting age, down to the city block and up to the school district and county level.

Cape Girardeau Mayor Harry Rediger is eagerly awaiting the release. He predicts the city should see small population gains.

"We feel with the numbers we've gotten in city hall -- the utility sign-ups, building licenses, homebuilding -- we really think we've got a few percent gain," he said.

Cape Girardeau's 2009 population was estimated at 37,657, according to the American Community Survey, the annual estimate of U.S. population and demographic trends put out by the Census Bureau. The city's head count grew by about 6 percent from 2000, when the decennial census recorded 35,349 residents lived in Cape Girardeau. As of 2009, the city ranked 16th-largest among Missouri's municipalities.

Expansion continues on the city's north and west sides, and several annexations have driven much of the city's population gains over the last decade, Rediger said. Southeast Missouri State University's streak of record enrollment over the period also has bolstered the city's numbers.

Cape Girardeau County's population increased nearly 8 percent between 2000 and 2009, growing from 68,693 residents to an estimated 73,957, according the Census Bureau. Population has grown by 20 percent since 1990, when the decennial census showed 61,633 people residing in the the county.

Jackson has boasted much of that growth. Its estimated headcount in 2009 was 13,249 people, up from 11,947 residents in 2000, according to the Census Bureau.

Mayor Barbara Lohr is confident the 2010 census will top 14,000 residents, and she said there's a possibility population could approach 15,000.

"All we really want to do is grow," she said.

Dollars and redistricting

The 2010 census figures will determine redistricting, a process that ultimately determines representation on state legislatures, county boards and city councils. And census data is used to distribute more than $400 billion in federal funds over the next decade.

With so much at stake on the political front, there's a buzz around Jefferson City as lawmakers await the highly anticipated census information. State Rep. John Diehl, R-Town and Country, at a news conference Monday spoke of sharing ideas for redistricting maps with Gov. Jay Nixon's administration.

But setting boundaries of representation is in large part the domain of the party in power, which in Missouri is the Republicans. The state legislature is responsible for drawing the new congressional districts and will approve them just like any other legislation. State Sen. Scott Rupp, R-St. Charles, said the software that will help draw the maps may be powerful, but legislators will have the final say on how the maps are drawn.

Cape Girardeau County Commissioner Jay Purcell said growth in the northern part of the county and the outlying areas of Cape Girardeau could mean changes in commission representation for some county residents.

On the federal front, comparatively smaller population gains will cost Missouri a seat in the House, going from nine to eight representatives.

Just how the congressional districts are affected remains to be seen, but Purcell believes Cape Girardeau County won't see any changes in congressional representation.

"I feel comfortable with the leadership we have, and I believe we will have the same leadership," he said. "If anything, the change will be in one of the heavily dominated Democratic areas up north."

Staff writer Carrie Bartholomew contributed to this report.

mkittle@semissourian.com

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