AREA FARMERS HOPE FOR BETTER YEAR IN '94

It was not a good year for farmers in Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois.

"Grain prices are at a higher level than in past years, but when you don't have anything to sell, prices don't mean much," says Terry Birk of the Cape Girardeau County Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service (ASCS) office.

In many cases, yields were just under average, points out Birk and Gary Barnett, district conservationist for Pulaski-Alexander counties in Southern Illinois, but overall production was dramatically down due to acreage lost by flooding.

"There were no bright spots," said Birk. "There were some peaks and valleys, but mostly valleys.

"We just didn't have a good crop year. Because of the variances in weather, herbicides and chemicals didn't work like they should, and crop quality was low."

Barnett agrees.

"This was not a good year for local farmers," he said. "We had some strange weather. Farmers not only suffered from flooding conditions, they suffered from drought conditions."

Barnett added that in Alexander County, more than 25,000 acres were lost to farm production.

"Farmers in the Miller City area lost productive land due to a break in the Fayville Levee," said Barnett. "Farmers in the East Cape Girardeau area lost land for the year due to seepwater."

The situation was much the same in Cape Girardeau and Perry counties of Missouri.

"About a fourth of agriculture acreage in Cape County was lost," said Birk. "We lost more than 20,000 acres because of flooding. Some of that land was planted, but didn't get harvested."

That much, or more, crop land was lost in Perry County, with the break of the Mississippi River levee northeast of Perryville.

Birk agrees that the area suffered "some strange weather" during 1993.

"We had periods of wet weather which damaged crops while they were growing, then it turned off real dry," said Birk.

The effects of the year's weather has also shown up in winter wheat planting.

"Most farmers have finished their winter wheat planting," said Birk. "Seeding is down considerably this year because of wet lands."

Cape Girardeau County farmers have planted about 12,000 acres of winter wheat, to be harvested in the spring.

"We usually have about 19,000 acres of winter wheat," said Birk.

Farmers are already looking to 1994 and hoping for a better year.

"We're hoping that farmers can get back in their fields within a couple of months," said Birk. "It may seem a long time off at this point, but first corn is usually planted in Cape County in March. That means farmers will be in the fields in mid-to-late February."

Meanwhile, flood-stricken farmers are cleaning up from the summer's disaster.

A recent survey of 400 Midwest farmers found that 70 percent of farmers were busy with the removal of silt, rebuilding of fences, repair and cleanup of farm machinery and levee repairs.

Midwestern members of Congress are wrestling with the Clinton administration and environmentalists over how many washed-out levees to rebuild. The administration agreed last month to provide $18 million for levees that don't qualify for other aid, but some lawmakers want at least $50 million more.

"I strongly support the reinstatement of an Army Corps of Engineers policy which allows public and private levees to receive some federal assistance," says U.S. Rep. Bill Emerson, R-Cape Girardeau. "Missouri agriculture and many other industries rely on our nation's river system to transport their goods."

Emerson noted that about 30 percent of farm products in Missouri are destined for export, "mostly via the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers.

"As Congress and the administration continue to examine the policies regarding the flood of '93, the federal government must emphasize voluntary programs and fund efforts that will protect our agriculture lands," said Emerson. "The future of Missouri's agriculture economics depend on it."

November weather was wetter than normal throughout the immediate area, but there were enough dry days for most farmers to finish grain harvest for the season, said Birk.

"Overall, we had cool and moist weather," noted Birk. "There was a little of all kinds of weather conditions -- including an ice storm in central and northern Missouri and some snow accumulations. But, the majority of harvesting has been completed here."

The corn harvest nationally was estimated at 6.5 billion bushels, 31 percent below the 1992 record production. The U.S. yield per acre is also down. The 103.1 bushels per acre is down 18.2 bushels per acre from the record high of last year.

Corn production in Missouri is even farther down, according to the Missouri Crop and Livestock Report, with about 163 million bushels, 50 percent below last year's production. The yield is about 93 bushels per acre, a 42-bushel decline from 1992. Corn acreage in Missouri for 1993 was down almost a fourth of the 2.4 million acres in 1992.

Soybean figures are not much better. In Missouri, the 123 million bushels total is down 24 percent from a year ago. Nationally, the expected 1.8 billion bushels is down 16 percent from a year ago.

Grain sorghum is down about 27 percent from a year ago, with about 50.8 million bushels. Nationally, the 620 million bushels is down about 30 percent from 1992.

Cotton production in Missouri -- mostly in the Bootheel area -- is down about 32 percent from 1992, with about 370,000 bales. Cotton experts say small boll size reduced yield expectations and created some harvesting problems. The news was good on the national cotton scene, however, with a production total of 16.3 million bales, up 78,000 bales from 1992 totals.

Carryover stocks on grains are the lowest in years, according to the Missouri University Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).

"The grain supplies have never recovered from the drought of 1988 yet," said Abner Womack, co-director of FAPRI. "The tight stock situation is good, if you have grain to sell." Womack, however, says he does not recommend holding grain for the long term.

The FAPRI report shows ending stocks of corn at 877 million bushels, down from 2,113 million the previous year. Soybeans are at 177 million bushels down from 292 million bushels. Grain sorghum ending stocks were 80 million bushels, down from 175 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks are at 674 million bushels, which is up from the previous year stock of 529 million bushels.

After harvest each year, FAPRI economists run a 10-year baseline projection of the agricultural economy through their computers. The models of the U.S. and world agriculture include production, trade, consumer demand, government price policies, and dozens of other variables. Weather is assumed to be average; they do not try to anticipate the climate.

Although lower stocks of grains will cause prices to increase, Womack says higher prices generated by short supply will be largely offset by lower prices caused by cuts in orders from foreign buyers.

Womack says farmers will see some $7 (per bushel) soybeans and $3 corn, "but those prices won't hold," he said. "Prices will drift lower throughout the season, but any weather scares will cause prices to jump back up."

FAPRI baseline projections include average prices expected for commodities during the coming year: Corn, $2.45 per bushel up from the $2.07 average this past marketing year that ended in September; soybeans, $6.42 per bushel up from the $5.60; grain sorghum, $2.28 per bushel, up from $1.89; and wheat, $3.06, down from $3.24.

"Those are average prices for the year, but that doesn't mean farmers should sell at those prices," said Womack, who advises farmers developing a marketing plan to set "trigger prices" above the average. "When the market reaches those prices, move some grain," he said. "You won't see $7 soybeans very often; but you won't go broke selling $6.50 beans."