ARE WE READY FOR THE 'MILLENIUM BUG'??

David Hitt, director of emergency operations for Cape Girardeau County, likens the year 2000 computer problem, known as the Y2K bug, to a devastating, once-in-a-lifetime earthquake.

"Normally, when we talk about a major earthquake," he said, "we're talking about parts of seven states, which is a huge, huge area. But you can eventually get outside the damaged area to where there are resources.

"But this Y2K problem, in a worst case scenario, is worldwide," he said. "So I don't want to tell you that Cape County is going to come to the rescue of Cape County if, in fact, that does occur."

Thomas Wallgren, a computer science professor at Southeast Missouri State University, says when clocks roll over on Jan. 1, 2000, "I'm going to be grateful that we live in a rural area rather than in the city.

"I think there will be disruptions," he said. "We're certainly going to have some food stockpiled in the winter anytime. In the country, if we had a power outage, we would certainly have some wood that we could keep warm with and water that we could live on. I would not be flying that weekend, and I wouldn't be in the city."

Some people, such as the Carterville, Mo., woman who is building "survival domes" and collecting old bicycles to barter, and the Pierre, S.D., urban planner who is leasing plots in a year 2000 survival colony, believe society will collapse in less than 18 months.

The cause of their cataclysmic concern? It's remarkably simple:

Two zeroes.

Decades ago, to save valuable memory space, computer programmers began using two digits to refer to years in software and the billions of microprocessor chips embedded in electronic devices. So until recently, the year 1994 was referred to as "94," with the "19" understood.

But on Jan. 1, 2000, thousands of computers could interpret 2000 as 1900, causing many to go haywire, often in unpredictable ways. If so, every American -- and everything from their VCRs to the computer this article was typed on to the economy -- could be affected.

Some already have. U.S. News & World Report reported that the entire computer system crashed in a grocery in Warren, Mich., when a cashier swiped a credit card with a 2000 expiration date. And checkers at the Schnucks store in Cape Girardeau have to manually key in 1999 for cards with 2000 dates, a manager said.

"The consequence of the millennium bug, if not addressed, could simply be a rash of annoyances, like being unable to use a credit card at the supermarket, or the video store losing track of the tape you have already returned," President Bill Clinton told an audience at the National Academy of Sciences Tuesday.

But, the president added, "This is not one of the summer movies where you can close your eyes during the scary parts. It could affect electric power, phone service, air travel, major governmental service." The list seemingly is endless.

The local utilities, city and county governments, hospitals, banks and supermarkets contacted by the Southeast Missourian all say they are in some stage of a concerted Y2K conversion process, or their systems need no changes.

All say they expect to solve all identifiable internal systems problems by Jan. 1, 2000. But most stressed that they depend on vendors, whom they have no control over.

And the nature of the closely intertwined global economy makes many businesses reliant on companies in other countries, where progress often is extremely slow.

None guaranteed there will be no foul-ups.

Some companies must wade through millions of lines of programming code, checking line by line for references to years.

For example, SBC Communications Inc., the parent company of Southwestern Bell, has 250 million lines of code.

That there are at least 600 computer languages, and a shortage of more than 345,000 programmers needed to ferret out the flaws in the U.S. alone compounds the quandary.

"There are so many lines of code in computer programming that have to be looked at -- there is only less than a year and a half to do that -- a significant amount of code cannot possibly have been examined by the time 2000 comes," Wallgren said.

Companies must also canvass scores of electronic equipment, such as assembly lines, for embedded systems. Some of these microprocessors have been found in surprising places, which has made the process more difficult.

Many computers are connected by networks, so one plagued computer can cripple others that are Y2K compliant. (Your personal computer, if it has a Pentium chip or newer, likely will be OK. Others must be fixed.)

And the government is experiencing many of the same botherations as private industry. A congressional subcommittee learned that only nine of 24 federal departments expect to have mission-critical systems overhauled in time.

Worldwide, the cost of conversion could be hundreds of billions of dollars. The U.S. government alone estimates it will spend at least $3.9 billion to fix the glitch.

While the large companies contacted in Cape Girardeau said they would be prepared, many mid- to small-sized businesses are ignoring the problem. In his address Tuesday, Clinton cited a Wells Fargo survey that found only about half the companies that have heard of the Y2K bug plan to do anything about it.

Some experts say the large companies are viewing the pickle through rose-colored lenses. Ed Yourdon, a computer programmer and author of Time Bomb 2000, wrote in his Computerworld column that "unless your (information technology) organization is one of the top 25 percent in the country, you have no basis for such optimism -- and it would be better for everyone if you stopped kidding yourself."

Ameren starts early

A caveat from the government prompted Ameren Corp., parent of AmerenUE, to get an early start on the Y2K bug. The power company has been working on the glitch longer than the other entities the Southeast Missourian contacted.

Early this decade, the Nuclear Regulatory Agency asked companies with nuclear plants -- Ameren's 1,137-megawatt Calloway plant in central Missouri is one -- to examine their hardware and software, company spokeswoman Susan Gallagher said. The company organized a formal task force early last year.

"The Nuclear Regulatory Agency was pretty quick to spot this as a potential problem," Gallagher said.

The Calloway plant uses analog processors, which, unlike digital embedded systems, are not subject to the Y2K glitch. Also, automated switching mechanisms could be operated manually if they fell prey to the bug. And much of the company's computer system is relatively new, and is either Y2K-ready or requires minor modifications, Gallagher said.

She said the company is "confident" it is has catalogued vulnerable equipment. And it is currently "taking corrective measures." The effort, which includes checking non-nuclear hardware and the power grid, will involve about 100 technicians and cost $10 million to $15 million.

But, Gallagher said, Ameren depends on dozens of vendors, which makes the problem an "industry issue." Usually, only about 16 percent of the electricity that powers your TV or toaster comes from Ameren's own Calloway plant, another company official said. The rest is bought from sources nationwide.

"We can't absolutely, totally offer -- as with anything -- absolute assurances," Gallagher said.

SBC spending millions

Southwestern Bell is answering queries about its SBC Year 2000 Project with a four-page question-and-answer statement.

SBC answers its first question, "Will my phone service work in the Year 2000?" with a one-word reply: "Yes."

"We fully expect to meet our obligations and responsibilities to our customers," the statement continues.

The phone giant is spending about $250 million. Three hundred programmers are spending about 3,000 combined hours a day on the project, scouring the 1,100 central office switches, 100,000 personal computers, 950 internal applications and 10,000 vendor products for glitches.

Equipment assessment and tool selection have been completed, and programming code changes, other systems fixes and testing are underway. The project is scheduled to be complete by the third quarter of 1999.

But, like Ameren, SBC warns that it can't guarantee against "vendor surprises."

Hospitals at vendors mercy

St. Francis Hospital appears to be ahead of Southeast Hospital in subduing the Y2K bug.

St. Francis created in April five committees consisting of 35 people, who will devote several hours a month to the project. Some have been assigned to aid in making the hospital Y2K compliant; others are devising contingency plans.

The hospital's goal is to be compliant by the end of this year. It plans to spend about $261,000 this year to convert.

St. Francis has no dedicated Y2K technicians. Its programmers are doing the work on top of their normal duties.

"I don't see (the Y2K bug) as a problem at all internally," said Dianne Gammon, St. Francis' director of information systems. "Actually, we were less concerned, I think, with internal things ... than we are from some of the things that might affect us from the outside."

The two hospitals must inquire about vulnerable embedded chips in scores of mission-critical items such as medication dispensers, monitors, lab analyzers and thermostats. St. Francis began contacting biomedical products vendors and accessing Y2K test results on their Web sites about a year and a half ago, Gammon said.

Southeast, which has set no timeframe for compliance and hasn't determined how much it will spend, has established an inhouse committee of 10 members. They are from various departments and meet monthly, said Jay McGuire, Southeast's director of information systems.

While St. Francis is in the midst of testing and has done some implementation, Southeast is doing an inventory of its systems and devices and still will be conducting tests through the fourth quarter of 1999.

But McGuire said he believes Southeast will be ready in time.

"There's no 100 percent guarantee," he said. "It's unknown exactly what will happen. But we are doing everything that we can beforehand to identify known things that we would have problems with."

Southeast is replacing its entire telephone system, and should have its main computer system ready by October, McGuire said. He added that items such as office products, air conditioning, backup lighting, generators, alarms, fire sprinklers and elevators will be examined.

Banks, groceries affected too

At NationsBank, Cape Girardeau's largest lender, all associates are expected to assist the company's dedicated Y2K technicians in identifying possible problems, spokeswoman Kelly Polonus said.

NationsBank is spending about $120 million. Polonus said virtually every company computer system is affected, from the mainframe computer that monitors checking accounts to the systems provided by the bank's vendors.

NationsBank has been working on the glitch since October 1995. It plans to complete its conversion by the end of this year, and use 1999 for final checks.

"We anticipate that we'll meet all of our completion dates," Polonus said. "It's something we've taken very seriously and we've been very proactive in getting (conversion) started."

At Schnucks, a manager said that company is replacing virtually its entire computer system. Six programmers are rewriting code, and technicians are working in each store. Check cashing and credit card systems are most susceptible, he said.

Local governments say they're ready

"The things that the county government can control as far as computers are ready to go. The things that the city of Jackson can control ... are ready to go," said Hitt, the county emergency operations director.

John Richbourg, Cape Girardeau's finance director, said that city has no Y2K concerns because it's upgrading most of its administrative computer system anyway. "Our computers and software are new enough where we don't have any concerns," he said.

Assistant public works director Tim Gramling said his department also has no worries. "Our traffic signals are not computerized," he said. "We have a very old, vintage system in place. We are going to be doing an upgrade this year."

And Kevin Priester, water production superintendent, said a 9-year-old system at Plant 2 that would face Y2K problems was scheduled to be replaced in the next six months anyhow because of its lack of capacity. Also, a few administrative computers must be upgraded, he said.

Priester said most of the water department's computer systems were bought in the past two years, and the department inquired about their Y2K compliance at the time of purchase. He also said the department uses no equipment with embedded chips.

Clinton remains optimistic

Despite the enormity of the problem, the difficulties, the cost and the late start, President Clinton said he believes Americans will squash the Y2K bug.

"... If we act properly, we won't look back on this as a headache, sort of the last failed challenge of the 20th century," he said. "It will be the first challenge of the 21st century successfully met. That is the American way, and together we can do it."