ANALYSTS: DESPITE NEW HAMPSHIRE WIN, MCCAIN FACES AN UPHILL BATTLE VS. BUSH

Gov. George Bush remains the Republican presidential front-runner despite Sen. John McCain's win Tuesday in the New Hampshire primary.

Bush has far more money and the support of Republican political leaders across the country.

That's the assessment of four political science professors at Southeast Missouri State University.

The professors -- Michael Levy, Brian Smentkowski, Peter Bergerson and Mitchel Gerber -- discussed the results of Tuesday's primary votes. Bergerson chairs the university's political science department.

More than 80 people, most of them students, turned out Wednesday for the Common Hour program at the university's Glenn Auditorium.

This was the second in a series of Common Hour programs on the 2000 presidential election campaign.

McCain, senator from Arizona, garnered 49 percent of the vote to 30 percent for Bush.

Smentkowski said McCain wrote off the Iowa caucuses to Bush and concentrated instead on winning the New Hampshire primary.

McCain spent a lot of time meeting with the voters all across New Hampshire. He held 114 town meetings.

"You show up often and you show up early and you work the crowd," Smentkowski said of McCain's approach.

McCain's outsider image helped propel him to victory in the primary, Smentkowski said.

But, he said, while Bush has a 50-state strategy to win the Republican nomination, McCain's is a two-state strategy. McCain banked on winning the New Hampshire primary and then winning the South Carolina primary on Feb. 19.

Exit polls showed that New Hampshire voters in the Republican primary were more concerned with the personal qualities of voters than the issues, he said.

A Vietnam veteran and former prisoner of war, McCain's military experience is expected to appeal many voters in South Carolina.

But Bush still leads McCain in the polls in South Carolina and has a sizable war chest, Smentkowski said.

McCain is fighting an uphill battle to win the nomination, the political science professor said. "The numbers are stacked against him."

Bush appears solidly ahead of McCain in states like California and Michigan, he said. Even in McCain's home state of Arizona, polls show the Republican race is "remarkably tight," said Smentkowski.

Gerber agreed Bush probably will win the Republican nomination.

Levy said McCain must win South Carolina to have any chance to win the GOP nomination.

That won't be easy, Levy said. Bush has raised more than $67.6 million compared to $15.5 million for McCain. "His number one attribute is his money," Levy said of Bush.

Financial records show Bush with $31.4 million in his campaign treasury as of Jan. 31. In contrast, McCain had about $1.5 million on hand, Levy said.

Through Oct. 15 in Missouri, Bush had raised more than $900,000 compared to $27,735 for McCain, Levy said.

On the Democratic side, Bill Bradley had raised $306,700. Vice President Al Gore had collected more than $106,000. A former Missourian, Bradley grew up in Crystal City.

Money is critical to campaigning, Levy said. It determines everything from staffing to political strategy.

Smentkowski said, "Candidates typically run out of money before they run out of support."

In New Hampshire Tuesday, Gore edged out Bradley in the Democratic primary. Bradley called his close finish "a real victory for a new kind of politics."

But Bergerson said the real winner was Gore. The vice president won in a state that traditionally has been hard on presidential front-runners, he said.

Bergerson said that shouldn't be surprising in a state whose motto is "live free or die."

Bradley and Gore have each raised more than $27 million, according to campaign finance information distributed by Levy.

But Gore has the support of organized labor and many Democratic Party leaders.. "I don't feel Bradley has the organization and base within the Democratic Party to win the nomination," Bergerson said.