Afghanistan's elections take place in atmosphere of possibility

KABUL, Afghanistan -- Afghanistan's first-ever presidential vote puts this nation of mud-brick houses and tribal fiefdoms on the edge of an improbable experiment with democracy.

Osama bin Laden's training bases have been uprooted, and Afghanistan is no longer a haven for international terrorists. But three years to the day since a U.S. bombing campaign toppled the Taliban regime, Islamic militancy lives on, the drug trade is booming and warlords hold sway over much of the country.

Hamid Karzai, the nation's unrelentingly optimistic interim president, is the overwhelming favorite to win Saturday's vote against a large field of challengers, though it is not clear yet if he will get the majority necessary to avoid a runoff.

What awaits after victory is a nation with great promise, but daunting challenges.

The Taliban pose no real threat of a return to power, at least as long as Afghanistan's still undermanned national army is backed by an 18,000-strong U.S.-led coalition and 9,000 NATO troops. But its hard-line followers are far from defeated.

Taliban and al-Qaida fighters have kept up a steady drumbeat of attacks -- especially in the south and east of the nation. Nearly 1,000 people, including 30 American soldiers, have been killed in political violence so far this year -- hardly a picture of stability.

Despite the destruction of their terror bases, bin Laden and his No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahri, remain fugitives, probably living in the mountain regions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. U.S. officials say the men are still believed to be actively plotting attacks.

More control over opium

But the main threats to Afghanistan's stability probably lie elsewhere -- in the inability of the government to curb regional warlords, and the ballooning heroin and opium trade.

Karzai has taken steps in recent months to exert more control -- removing strongman Ismail Khan as governor of the western city of Herat, dumping Tajik faction leader Mohammed Fahim from his presidential ticket and pushing the pace of a much-delayed program to disarm militias. The president has said the warlords are his greatest preoccupation.

The heroin and opium trade -- largely kept in check under the Taliban -- grew into a $2.3 billion a year business in 2003, more than half of the nation's gross domestic product.

This year's figures will likely be even higher.

U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad said last month the drug trade "has the potential to undo all the positive things we have done so far or are planning to do."

And the big profits have already begun to bring with them serious violence.

On Thursday, the government blamed drug smugglers -- not Taliban or al-Qaida fighters -- for a bomb attack the day before on Karzai's vice presidential running mate, Ahmed Zia Massood. The politician was not hurt, but one man was killed and five others wounded.

Still, there is no denying that progress has been made in this nation of 25 million.

Three million Afghans have returned from exile in Pakistan and Iran, and millions of women and girls have returned to work and school -- resuming active lives abandoned for five years when the Taliban ordered them shuttered in their homes.

Signs of reconstruction -- much of it financed by the United States -- are everywhere, from the newly paved highways to the international hotels going up in the capital, Kabul.

The government remains chronically dependent on foreign aid, but key ministries such as finance and health are also beginning to find their feet. The ability to deliver services to long-abandoned provinces will be a crucial test for the new government after the election.

Some 41 percent of those who have registered to vote are women, a staggering statistic in a nation where centuries of tradition and lack of education have conspired to shut most women out of public life.

Khalilzad, the Afghan-born U.S. ambassador, has tended to see the positive, but even he has acknowledged that full recovery is a distant dream for a nation that has experienced calamity heaped upon calamity for over 25 years -- from the 1979 Soviet invasion, to a bloody civil war, to Taliban misrule and a devastating drought to boot.

"If the journey of building Afghanistan is a 10-mile journey, we're at the end of mile three," Khalilzad said recently. "So we have some distance to go."

Ghaffar Khan, a 30-year-old jewelry trader in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar, spoke for many Afghans who hope the elections mean that years of fighting are finally behind them.

"For the first time, the simple people can choose their leader," he said at a shop where he was chatting with a friend Thursday. "We still have problems, but we no longer have fear. We have hope."