4TH QUARTER EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK GOOD

Christmas-season activity including wholesale/retail construction, manufacturing and services are expected to keep employment in three Southeast Missouri counties at near current levels throughout the fourth quarter of 1991.

This is the projection of a fourth quarter employment outlook survey, conducted by Manpower, Inc., a temporary help firm.

"Local employment projections for the October-November-December period in Cape Girardeau, Scott and Perry counties indicate that 30 percent of the businesses interviewed intend to add staff," said Kim Hill, of the local Manpower Inc. branch, located at 106 Farrar Drive, Suite 104. "Sixty percent of the businesses expect to remain at current levels in employment, and only 10 percent indicate any work force reductions."

Manpower Inc. conducts employment outlook surveys on a quarterly basis.

The outlook is much the same in Southern Illinois, where 17 percent of businesses in the Carbondale area intend to add to their employment roles.

Employment in the retail sector is expected to receive a big boost in the Carbondale and Marion areas with the opening of the new Illinois Centre mall at Marion and the opening of a new Famous Barr operation in the University Mall at Carbondale.

"These surveys represent measurements of employers' intentions to increase or decrease the permanent work force," said Hill. "During the 15-year history of the survey nationally, it has been a significant indicator of employment trends."

The local Southeast Missouri survey is conducted out of the Manpower office in Cape Girardeau. The Southern Illinois survey is conducted by the Carbondale Manpower Inc. office. Both are included in the national survey, which includes interviews with more than 15,000 public and private employers in 474 U.S. cities.

Manpower Inc., one of the world's largest temporary help firms, annually provides employment to almost 1.5 million people through more than 1,600 offices in 24 countries.

"The anticipated boost in Christmas activity normally accounts for much of the hiring at the end of the year in Southeast Missouri," said Hill. "But this usually does not offset the slowdown in other industries."

Hill said employment prospects this winter could be most numerous in construction, and non-durable goods manufacturing, services, and the wholesale/retail trade.

"Lower work force levels are expected in education," she said.

On a national basis, traditional fourth quarter weakness is reflected, as only 21 percent of the firms surveyed intend to add to the present work force, and 12 percent plan reductions.

The strongest employment recoveries are expected in the Midwest and South, while the Northeast and West project lower levels of hiring activity.

The Midwest area is expected to continue the trend of the past six quarters, when that area was at, or near, the brightest outlook among regions. There is, in fact, little variation in year-end expectations since 1982.

The present outlook for durable goods manufacturers has been exceeded in the fourth quarter of only three of the past 12 years. Prospects for non-durable goods manufacturers nationally are strong.