Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, has been under the control of ISIS since June 2014, when they attacked the city, and the Iraqi forces abandoned their posts, weapons and equipment in the face of the enemy. As of this writing ISIS has had more than eight months to build its defenses around Mosul. The ISIS military leaders may not have had a formal military education, but it does not take a great deal of research on the Internet to learn that a force attacking a fortified enemy needs a 3-to-1 advantage. If the defensive force knows what to anticipate from an attacker, and they have enough time and resources, they can quickly build a force to resist that attacking force. So, it is generally accepted fact that surprise is a key element in an offensive operation.
On Feb. 20, 2014, U.S. Central Command conducted a media telephone briefing during which a military spokesman said that Iraqi forces with U.S. support would be attacking the 1,000 to 2,000 ISIS forces in Mosul in April or May with a force of 20,000 to 25,000. Of course, telling this to ISIS informs them they need to reinforce Mosul with at least 8,000 fighters, and ISIS now knows they need to have their defenses reinforced by April.
Many retired senior officers have expressed surprise that the U.S. would inform an enemy of its military plans. Senators Lindsey Graham and John McCain have sent a letter President Obama demanding to know who conducted this briefing. In the letter they wrote, "Never in our memory can we recall an instance in which our military has knowingly briefed our own war plans to our enemies. These disclosures not only risk the success of our mission, but could also cost the lives of U.S., Iraqi and coalition forces."
If the intent was to frighten ISIS into retreating, that theory ignores that ISIS forces were emboldened by their defeat and rout of the Iraqi army last year. In fact, Iraqi defense minister Kahled Obeidi angrily complained about the U.S. military statements regarding an attack on Mosul.
The Central Command briefing was either part of a brilliant strategy or just plain stupid. Time will tell.
Jack Dragoni attended Boston College and served in the U.S. Army in Berlin and Vietnam. He resides in Chaffee, Missouri.
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