Dan Rather's future is a complicated question

NEW YORK -- In Kansas City, Mo., it's Kirk Black's job to answer for Dan Rather.

The station manager of KCTV, like his colleagues at many other CBS affiliates, is facing a flood of calls and e-mails from viewers angry at Dan Rather for relying on apparently fake documents to suggest President Bush's National Guard service record was less than stellar.

Whether Rather rides out this storm depends on many factors, including ratings, his specific culpability in the shaky Guard story, a potential successor and even, perhaps, the results of a presidential election.

The opinions of people like Black, whose stations give Rather his national platform, may be most crucial.

"He's part of the face of my television station," Black said, "and people who aren't in the business, they don't separate my local anchors from him. They just see it as CBS. It's very difficult as you talk to viewers and try to explain what your position is and that you had nothing to do with what happened."

Viewers of WIVB-TV in Buffalo, N.Y., are more understanding -- to a point.

"My experience has been, [people say] 'It's not you guys, I know. It's those guys in New York. But isn't there anything you can do?"' said Chris Musial, the interim station manager.

He's counted some 1,300 e-mails in the past week. Most are part of a national campaign against Rather from conservatives who have hated him since he covered the Nixon White House. Starting late last week, a backlash campaign in support of Rather had started.

Bob Lee, chairman of CBS' local affiliate board and president and general manager of WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, Va., said he's never seen such a viewer response. Black said he could envision worse -- like if he cut off the end of a Kansas City Chiefs football game, but not much else.

There are more than 200 CBS affiliates and 16 additional stations, mostly in big cities, that are owned and operated by CBS. More than 1,000 radio stations air CBS News.

It's very doubtful that any TV stations will try to switch affiliations, primarily because CBS is the prime-time ratings leader.

That doesn't mean there isn't deep concern over what's going on at CBS News.

"If there are enough people who watch and choose to turn away from CBS News because of their opinions of Dan, that would potentially force CBS News' hand," said Gary Gardner, vice president and general manager of WINK-TV in Fort Myers, Fla.

Few station executives will publicly speak ill of Rather, 72, out of respect for his long and distinguished career as a newsman. They were heartened by CBS' appointment of former U.S. Attorney General Dick Thornburgh and retired Associated Press chief executive Louis Boccardi to investigate the Guard story and want to see the results.

Privately, there's considerable sentiment that "the time has passed" for change, as one manager said.

"They need to phase Dan out in the most compassionate and appropriate way they can," said another executive.

"I don't think there's a connection there between him and the viewers we want any more," said a third. "I think the show needs an overhaul and generally what comes with an overhaul is a new face."

Politically, Rather's downfall could be hastened by President Bush's re-election. CBS might not want to risk having the symbolic head of its news division at odds with the administration for four years, even if that's more perception than reality.

Station managers say they've encouraged CBS to work on a succession plan, much like NBC is in the midst of with Tom Brokaw and Brian Williams.

The Guard story is a complication; few expect Rather to willingly exit under a cloud.

And who to replace him?

CBS News has no one so obviously in line as NBC with Williams. John Roberts and Scott Pelley are the most frequently mentioned internal candidates, with Harry Smith joining the list lately because of his work on "The Early Show."

"It's a challenge that CBS faces and I don't know if they've seriously looked at it," one station manager said. "They have put everything with Rather and there is no heir apparent. There is nobody in the wings to step in. That's going to be the biggest problem, and it is all exacerbated by this whole Rathergate thing."

Lee looks forward to the findings of the two men investigating the story.

"Let's wait and see what Mr. Boccardi says," Lee said. "My understanding is he has tough journalistic standards. I think he and Attorney General Thornburgh will be quite forthright. It's not about what makes my life easier as a station manager. It's about doing the right thing."

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On the Net:

http://www.cbsnews.com

http://www.rathergate.com

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EDITOR'S NOTE -- David Bauder can be reached at dbauder(at)ap.org