Warm weather leaves stores in the cold

NEW YORK -- The unseasonably warm weather has left some people feeling cold about holiday shopping.

Rosemarie Nowicki, who lives in Berkeley Heights, New Jersey, finally spent some of her holiday budget last weekend buying coats online for her family because she hated the thought of being stuck in a store with such mild temperatures outside.

"It's hard to get into the holiday spirit; I've been walking around in short-sleeve shirts and capri leggings," Nowicki said. "I was certainly not going to the mall."

Turns out, lots of shoppers feel the same way as temperatures in cities across the country, including New York and Philadelphia, near record levels for December. The balmy weather hasn't done anything to entice Americans to venture out and shop, which has hurt sales at stores that depend on the holiday season for up to 40 percent of their annual revenue.

Planalytics, a weather forecasting firm for retailers, estimates mall-based clothing stores have lost $343 million in sales so far compared with last year. That's the largest weather-related loss since 1998, when a devastating ice storm hit parts of the Northeast.

Sales of cold-weather items have been particularly icy. Sales of women's boots in New York, for instance, are down 24 percent for the first half of December, according to Planalytics. And First Data, which analyzes payments at stores and online, said fur sales fell 20 percent from Oct. 31 through Dec. 14.

"Winter didn't happen, and so the clothes, the scarves, are not selling," said Ron Friedman, head of the retail and consumer products group at accounting firm Marcum LLP. As a result, he said shoppers will see discounts of 75 percent after Christmas.

The fair-weathered shopping challenge underscores how U.S. consumers, still affected by the recession, remain strategic in their buying patterns. It's a habit they picked up during the economic downturn that's remained since.

Many shoppers only buy what they can wear, so it stands to reason they're not buying coats, boots and hats this year. And because cold-weather items also are hot gifts during the holiday shopping season, many of those items are left on store shelves. C. Britt Beemer, America's Research Group, a consumer-research firm, estimates cold-weather items account for 26 percent of overall holiday clothing sales.

The National Retail Federation, nation's largest retail group, still is sticking by its prediction earlier in the season that sales in November and December will rise 3.7 percent to $630.5 billion. That would mark a slowdown from the 4.1 percent growth last year.

And figures from First Data show higher overall sales growth for the period from Oct. 31 through Dec. 14 compared to the year-ago period.

Analysts believe online businesses are actually benefiting from the warm weather, offsetting sluggish traffic at the stores.

"Warm weather has helped online shopping rather than hurt it," Beemer said, adding people who don't want to be stuck at a mall are buying gift cards online.

Still, the unusually warm weather is a concern.

Marc Kaufman, CEO of the upscale furrier that operates one store in New York City but mostly sells online, said business is down 5 percent. The decline in its Northeast business has been offset partially by its online operations.

But Kaufman said if the weather were colder, sales for the holiday season would be up 30 percent.

"If it weren't for online, I would be in severe trouble," he said.

The cold reception by shoppers is forcing retailers to be creative to try to lure them into stores.

Some stores are offering bigger discounts than usual. Macy's, for example, was advertising 70 percent off some men's sweaters and 75 percent off children's outerwear last weekend, while Kohl's is slashing prices of puffy jackets to $39.99 from the original $100.

Sears is relocating its grills to the front part of its outdoor living sections in the Northeast, where it's been unseasonably warm.

And Overstock.com is featuring resort wear like swimsuits on its web site before Christmas. Overstock.com, which doesn't own the inventory, said it's directing shoppers to what they need now.

"When there's no snow, we don't advertise coats," said Amy Browning, merchandise manager of Overstock.com.