STRICTLY BUSINESS: SIGNS OF WINTER ABOUND

Without an El Nino, weather prognosticators are having a difficult time coming up with a long-range winter forecast.

El Nino, a rising of temperatures in the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean off the West Coast of South America, is cooling, says Tony Lupo, a University of Missouri climatologist.

Lupo explains: "Those ocean temperatures patterns have a tremendous influence over the jet stream flow. And, the jet stream, to a large extent, controls weather patterns over the United States."

El Nino operates in cycles of three to seven years, and right now, it's not operating. That means long-range forecasting appears to be about as reliable as the prediction on the Florida election.

So, bring on the "woollies!"

This time of year, the woolly worm can be ob-served in the grass and fallen leaves, minding its own business never realizing that some people believe it is predicting the weather for the next few months.

The woolly worm, or woolly bear, as it is sometimes called, is the hairy caterpillar stage in the life of the tiger moth (family Arctidae.)

And if you don't trust the woolly worm's prediction, try taking a look at persimmon seeds.

According to folklore, if a woolly worm is completely blond or light brown in color, the forthcoming winter will be a mild one. If the caterpillar is black, expect a severe winter.

What if the woolly worm is black at both ends and blond in the middle? Expect a winter severe at both ends but mild in the middle, and if you find one blond at both ends and black in the middle, expect a severe winter in the middle of the season.

Another time-honored practice for unscientific weather forecasts is reading the persimmon seed.

Weather legend tells us that each persimmon seed contains a design of a kitchen silverware -- spoon, fork or knife.

According to the legend, if the white, middle part of the seed is shaped like a spoon expect plenty of snow to shovel during the winter. If a fork design is found, snow will be light and if a knife design is present, it means a cutting-cold winter.

The designs are easy to spot when the seed is split, and persimmons used should be those that have recently fallen from a tree.

This writer studied the art of "unscientific" weather forecasting a few years back at North Elementary School in Fruitland, Mo., where students looked at persimmons seeds, walnuts, woolly worms and other weather predicting factors.

Many may scoff at the woolly bear's ability to foretell what the winter will be, but there are just as many who put stock in what its colored bands have to say each fall.

For those who remain skeptical, consider this: During a six-year period, woolly worms correctly predicted weather patterns in Southeast Missouri, according to the Fruitland school study. In other experiments across the nation, weather predictors claim 80 percent accuracy with the woolly worm.

In one sector of the nation, a "Woolly Worm Festival" is held each October, highlighted by a caterpillar race and an annual winter forecast. At this North Carolina festival, officials count the 13 segments of the woolly worm as a week of winter and correlate the blacks segments at the front and rear of the caterpillar as the beginning and end of winter. This group claims a 70 percent success rate.

There are other signs of winter:

* If squirrels start gathering nuts in mid-September, better order up some extra firewood.

* Birds huddling on the ground, cold weather will abound.

* Crickets in the chimney, cold weather is coming.

* If rabbits, horses, sheep, mules or dogs have thicker fur or hair, it's time to line your own nest.

* If screech owls sound like women crying, cold weather is ahead.

* Ants build their hills high to keep above coming snows.

And, it can be a bad winter if ...

* Carrots grow deep.

* Sweet potatoes have a tougher skin.

* Onions have more layers.

* Black walnuts and hickory nuts have a heavy shell.

* Tree bark is heaviest on the north side.

* Corn shucks are tighter around the ears of the corn.

So, who needs El Nino?