STRICTLY BUSINESS: HEAD COUNT: POPULATION COULD REACH 6 BILLION

As of Oct. 12, there will be 6 billion people on Earth.

Or, maybe not.

The date might be July 22. Or, July 19.

You can't say exactly when, say United Nations Population Fund (UNPF) officials, but the UNPF has declared Oct. 12 as the official "Day of Six Billion."

It seems that some demographers with the U.N.'s population division narrowed down the 6 billion milestone to some time in early October, but another organization has selected the big day as Oct. 12.

A quick calculation by "Yours Truly" reveals the date at July 21.

The July 21 date is the closest to that of the U.S. Census Bureau's International Programs Center, which projects July 19 to be the 6 billion day.

We all used the same census figures from around the world in our calculations,

Demographers run census figures through a "smoothing" process, trying to correct data-collection errors particular to each country. Then they extrapolate into the future from the date of the census, using each nation's estimated fertility, mortality and migration rates.

Me? I simply calculated the world population growth for an hour, multiplied that by 24, and divided that figure into the difference of the 5,998,031,325 population as of 11 a.m. Friday.

Answer: 13.5 days. Add 13.5 days to the July 9 date and it equals July 22.

None of these days should be mistaken for hard fact. Putting a number on the planet's bustling multitudes is less like toting up coins in a piggy bank and more like counting bees in a hive.

Current estimates of world population are actually projections based on census figures up to a decade old.

Add up all the countries, and the result is a world population figure that's stronger on precision than accuracy.

A glance at the World Census page of the Internet is interesting. The projection there, as of 11 a.m. Friday, was a wide, wide world total of 5,998,028,458. A half hour later, the time clock read, 5,998,031,375 -- 3,000 more people in a half hour.

That's a lot more people than ever lived on Earth before.

Like, 100 years ago, 1.6 billion people lived on Earth.

Population growth has accelerated during most of this century. It took all of human history to reach a world population of 1 billion in 1804. It took 123 years to reach 2 billion in 1927, 33 years to reach 3 billion in 1960, 14 years to reach 4 billion in 1974, and 13 years to reach 5 billion in 1987. Adding the sixth billion, a milestone U.N. demographers calculate will occur in early October, will have taken just 12 years.

Fifty years from now, there could be 8.9 billion people on Earth.

The countdown to the official U.S. Census is under way.

Would you believe the 2000 census count is half over? Henry Palacios, regional director of the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, Kansas City region, who was in Cape Girardeau last week, said two of the four phases of the census have been completed.

Palacios, who has participated in two previous census counts, 1980 and 1990, was guest speaker at the Cape Girardeau Chamber of Commerce Second Friday Coffee last week.

"We're at the halfway point," said Palacios.

The U.S. Census work, said Palacios, is made up of four major phases, (1) compilation of an address list, (2) block canvassing, (3) mailing of census forms and (4) adjustments.

"The first two phases have been completed," he said, "and you'll be seeing your census forms in March of next year."

The Census Bureau's deadline is to have the count to the president by Dec. 31, 2000.

Reapportionment for U.S. representatives will be determined, based on new population figures in April 2001.

"Guestimates" of the U.S. population ranged from 274 million to 278 million. The United States is not expected to hit the 300 million mark until 2007.

Missouri is expected to go from about 5.3 million to 5.5 million; Illinois could go from 11.8 million to about 12.1 million; Kentucky is expected to go from 2.8 million to 3.9 million; and Arkansas projections are to go from 1.4 million to 2.6 million.,

The U.S. Census Bureau will send out 120 million census questionnaires in March. It expects between 60 and 65 percent returns.

That's when the real census jobs start, checking out those 40 million families who did not return their questionnaire.

Census workers will increase dramatically, from the 7,000 workers normally employed by the bureau to peak numbers of about 800,000.

"This is a difficult chore, to find that many temporary workers," said Palacios.

The Cape Girardeau office is in the process of opening at 2751 Thomas -- the former Elks Club Building. Ellen Brandom has been named local office census manager.