STRICTLY BUSINESS: BEEF PRICES ARE UP, BUT SO ARE MANY OTHER GROCERY ITEMS

Beef prices are up about 30 percent over six months ago.

American grocery shoppers paid slightly higher prices for ground chuck and sirloin tip roast during the first quarter of this year.

Food prices are becoming as unpredictable as gasoline prices for the family car. And I've paid three different prices for gasoline during the past two weeks, all at the same service station.

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) conducts a "Market Basket Survey" every three months. The survey, conducted in 32 states across the nation, compares the cost of 16 pre-selected food items.

The results are telling. Nationwide, prices rose slightly over the final quarter of 2000, but only by a quarter.

The results were about the same during the first quarter of 2001. The AFBF informal survey shows a 24-cent increase from last year's fourth-quarter totals.

Shoppers paid $33.73 for the 16 items during the quarter this year, up from the $33.48 total of last year.

Half of the 16 food items rose in price, and eight fell.

The biggest gainer was a 32-ounce bottle of corn oil, which rose 33 cents, to $2.47. The biggest drop was in the average price of a pound of cheddar cheese, which fell 23 cents to $4.18.

Meanwhile, chuck roast prices were up 10 cents a pound during the quarter, to $2.88, and sirloin tip roast prices advanced eight cents, to $2.88 a pound. Beef prices have been rising the past six months and are up about 30 percent from last September. That translates from about 60 to 62 cents a pound on the hoof in September to about 77 to 79 cents a pound now.

The $33.73 paid for 16 selected items during January, February and March of this year is the highest since the survey started in 1989, with an average of $28.50 for the same items.

Missouri prices lower

Missouri fared well in the survey.

The 16 items in Missouri totaled $19.94.

According to AFBF Senior Economist Terry Francl, the increase in corn oil prices is likely due to a combination of factors: a seasonal, post-harvest rise in corn and vegetable oil prices; increased demand for the base crops as livestock feed; and a rebound from the sharp 22-cent drop in the corn oil price in the fourth quarter report.

AFBF Dairy Specialist Ken Olson said the big decrease in retail cheese prices is finally beginning to reflect the low prices that farmers are receiving for milk used to produce cheese. During 2000, the average farm price for milk used for cheese production was at its lowest level since 1978, he said.

Other price gainers in the latest survey included a 32-ounce bottle of vegetable oil, up 15 cents to $2.19; mayonnaise, up 7 cents to $2.93 per 32-ounce jar; white bread, up 4 cents to $1.20 per 20-ounce loaf and whole milk, up 4 cents to $2.78 per gallon.

Other items falling in price included: Pork chops (center cut), down 10 cents to $3.08 per pound; russet potatoes, down 10 cents to $1.52 per 5-pound bag; red delicious apples, down 8 cents to 83 cents per pound; bacon, down 7 cents to $2.55 per pound; oat cereal, down 6 cents to $2.78 per 10-ounce box; whole fryers, down 4 cents to 98 cents per pound and eggs, down 1 cent to $1.03 per dozen.

AFBF, the nation's largest farm organization, conducts its informal quarterly Market Basket Survey to help track retail food price trends. According to the Agriculture Department, the consumer price index (CPI) for food is expected to increase 2 to 2.5 percent in 2001, after increasing 2.3 percent in 2000.

While retail grocery store prices have generally increased over time, the share of the average food dollar received by America's farmers and ranchers has actually dropped. According to the Agriculture Department, the farm value of each food dollar spent in the United States is approximately 20 cents -- down from 41 cents in 1950.

Good news from N. Carolina

The North Carolina hog scare was just that -- a scare.

A North Carolina hog suspected of carrying foot-and-mouth disease tested negative Friday, said an agriculture spokeswoman.

The false alarm was the latest development in an international outbreak of the disease, which currently is threatening thousands of farm animals in Europe, posing a severe economic threat as a result.

No foot-and-mouth cases have been confirmed in the United States since 1929.

North Carolina agriculture officials sent the sample from the killed hog to a USDA lab on Long Island, New York, as a precaution because of concerns about the disease, the department said Friday. There were some anxious moments before the final analysis came in.

The disease cannot be spread to humans, but it can spread quickly among cloven-hoofed animals.

Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, the Dutch government is preparing to slaughter up to 100,000 animals in an effort to contain the spread of foot-and-mouth. Three new cases of the virus were confirmed on Thursday, bringing the total in the Netherlands to 10. The Prime Minister, Wim Kok, has described the outbreak as a national disaster.

In Britain, an estimated 480,000 cows, pigs and sheep have already been slaughtered in the United Kingdom. Another 250,000 have been earmarked for slaughter.