SEMO econ chief Yaskewich says job market 'cooling'

David Yaskewich, chairman of Southeast Missouri State University's Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, said Friday, April 7, he sees a silver lining in the U.S. Labor Department's March jobs report.

David Yaskewich

David Yaskewich

"My takeaway from the report is it looks like the job market is still strong, although there are signs of some cooling in terms of the slower pace of job gains," Yaskewich said.

The government said total employment increased by 236,000 in March — in line with economist expectations and marking the lowest monthly gain since December 2020.

Despite reports of job furloughs among the nation's largest employers, the nation's unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% in March after unexpectedly rising to 3.6% in February.

The U.S. jobless indicator hit a 54-year low of 3.4% in January.

"In the last few months of 2022, you saw gradually smaller rates of (U.S.) job gains (but) in January and February, we saw surprisingly high numbers for the pace of job gains. What we saw in (Friday's) report for March would be something more of what we would expect with the backdrop of Federal Reserve policy. (March's numbers) are more along the lines of what analysts would expect to see happen to the job market," said Yaskewich, who also noted another metric from the most recent report.

"The pace of growth in average hourly earnings slowed down and we've been seeing this for the last several months. March's 4.2% growth extrapolated on a 12-month basis is something you'd expect to see if we anticipate inflation going back down to normal levels."

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is on record seeking a 2% U.S. inflation rate as a desired target.

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