Our snowmaker is still poised to arrive Friday evening, but the computer models are nudging the storm track farther to the north, leaving us with more rain and less snow. Nevertheless, Cape Girardeau could still see a respectable 3+ inches of snow overnight Friday before the mess changes to liquid rain during the day on Saturday.
That's enough for the National Weather Service to issue a Winter Storm Warning for Cape Girardeau County starting Friday afternoon and running through Saturday morning.
Areas just to the north and west are expected to see substantially higher snow totals, with Farmington, Chester, Ste. Genevieve, and St. Louis all forecast to receive 5-8 inches.
The consensus of the latest computer models shows that Cape has a 70% chance of picking up at least two inches of accumulation. Thanks to a sharp gradient, however, areas to the south are far less likely to see snow (Sikeston only has a 30+% chance). Areas to the north, including most of Perry County, are in the red zone for a 95+% chance.
The projected track of the main low pressure system is slightly too far north to produce a big snow at Cape Girardeau, although portions of Missouri to the north could see massive snowfall totals if everything comes together just right.
With that said, the computer models -- and official forecasts -- have struggled with previous winter storms over the last few seasons, so anything can happen. The track could shift south and suddenly we're under the main axis of heaviest snow. Or the track could continue shifting north, and we get nothing but cold rain.
That's why we here at Weather or Not are prepared to go out on a limb and predict 0-24 inches of snow.