Our big storm: We might be disappointed

I figure the readers of this blog fall into two camps:

1. You don't want any part of any winter storm. No way, no how.

2. You'd like to see a quality snowstorm just once this season.

Unfortunately, the coming winter storm is likely to make both groups unhappy. We're poised to see a wintry mix followed by an Arctic blast, and that will disappoint the "I-want-spring-already" camp.

However, the storm is likely to drop more freezing rain and sleet than snow, so that will disappoint the snow lovers.

At the current time, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Southern Illinois, but Cape Girardeau and adjacent Missouri counties are not included. The consensus of the computer models is that the worst of the storm will just miss Southeast Missouri.

The national Weather Prediction Center produces charts showing the probabilities of receiving snow and freezing rain. These graphics take into account a variety of computer model runs. But, as we've seen with previous storms (and non-storms), anything can happen.

First, this chart shows the probability of seeing at least 2 inches of snow accumulation (40-50% at Cape):

For snow lovers who want to be really optimistic, this chart shows the probability of receiving at least 8 inches of snow (10-20%):

Of course, we also have to consider the F-word. This chart shows the probability of receiving at least a quarter-inch of freezing rain (30%-40%):

The WPC doesn't produce charts specifically for sleet, but we could be in store for a lot of sleet. And nobody wants that.

For example, this graphic from the latest GFS computer model shows a simulation of the radar at midnight Thursday evening. Green and yellow is rain, purple is freezing rain, red is sleet, and blue is snow. Notice that this frame show a lot of red in Missouri, but very little blue.

By the time everything changes to snow, the heaviest precipitation could be long gone to the east. That seems to be the typical outcome of these rain-changing-to-snow scenarios.

There is a chance that the storm could shift -- it wouldn't take much -- and we would be facing a quality eight-incher snowstorm. But I'm not holding my breath. This thing has disappointment written all over it.