Chance of snow this weekend, but not much to get excited about

Our first chance of white stuff this year comes Saturday evening when rain is expected to give way to snow. These rain-changing-to-snow scenarios rarely pan out, as the below-freezing temperatures have a tendency to arrive about 3.2 seconds after the heavy precipitation has departed.

This afternoon's forecast discussion from NWS Paducah explains, "The rain should mix and possibly turn over to snow later Saturday or Saturday evening. Right now the models suggest the dry air will come fast enough that most places would get a dusting to a few tenths at most locations."

Above-average temperatures during the day Saturday -- with highs in the 50s -- will make it hard for any snow to start accumulating Saturday night.

The computer models are hinting at a substantial snowfall to the northwest, especially just west of St. Louis, so it wouldn't take much for the system to track farther south and surprise us with a bigger snow. Right now the odds aren't that great, however, with probability maps showing a 10% chance of seeing at least 2 inches at Cape Girardeau:

After this system, the longer-range 8-14 Day Outlook is leaning toward below-average precipitation, which is good news for the lingering flood problems, but bad news if you like snow.