River update: Lower crest forecast at Chester, but Cape and Thebes forecasts unchanged

The latest round of river stage forecasts brought some good news for Chester and nearby areas, as the current projections have dropped the crest over two feet at Chester from previous forecasts. A revised crest of 47.5 is much better than 49.7.

In addition, the river has actually stopped rising at the Chester gage, although this is only a temporary phenomenon. A statement from the National Weather Service in St. Louis explains:

THIS MORNINGS RIVER MODEL RUN SHOWS DELAYED FLOWS FROM THE RECORD FLOODING ON THE MERAMEC RIVER AND HIGH FLOWS ON THE KASKASKIA RIVER... WATER IS EXPECTED TO BACK UP IN THESE TRIBUTARY RIVERS AND REACH THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER SLOWER THAN INITALLY EXPECTED...

A USGS MEASUREMENT EARLIER TODAY HAS SHOWN THAT MORE FLOW IS GETTING THROUGH THE RIVER AT A LESSER STAGE...

RISE TO 46 - 48 FEET... UNCERTAINTY DUE TO POSSIBLE LEVEE STRUCTURES BEING OVERTOPPED... THE STAGE AND FLOW RELATIONSHIP AT THESE LEVELS... AND THE RECORD HIGH FLOWS FROM THE AREA TRIBUTARIES...

The forecast for Cape Girardeau still shows the river reaching 48.5, which would tie the record from '93. Unlike Chester, the river's rise has not paused, and in fact seems to be ahead of the forecast points.

The forecast for Thebes continues to show the river exceeding the all-time record there by 1.6 feet (47.5).

However, the forecasts can easily change -- as they have at Chester.

Traffic mess in St. Louis

The MoDOT traveler map has been offline this afternoon due to heavy interest. One alternative for tracking road conditions is to turn on the Traffic layer on Google Maps and pay close attention to the major highways that don't have traffic overlays shown -- these are likely closed.

Right now the St. Louis traffic map looks scary, with I-44, Highway 30, and Highway 21 closed at or near the Meramec River. This leaves Manchester Road (Highway 100) and I-55 as alternatives, but those routes are experiencing major congestion as I write this -- and it's not rush hour yet. I'm seeing pleas on social media for rubberneckers to stay away from Manchester Road to allow emergency access to towns like Pacific that are otherwise cut off from St. Louis.