It's too early to get excited
As we've seen this winter season, forecasting any kind of snowstorm in advance can lead to serious disappointment (if you like snow). The computer models, especially several days out, are very prone to flip-flopping. Indeed, for us, they've been mostly flopping.
Nevertheless, that isn't stopping The Weather Channel from making a ridiculosuly detailed forecast for next week at Cape Girardeau: 5-8 inches of snow on Monday followed by 1-3 inches on Tuesday. It won't take long for them to plaster headlines about how many millions of people will be affected by this looming snowpocalypse.
Sure, the computer models are indeed hinting at a big winter storm early next week, and several inches of snow isn't out of the question. But lots of things could go wrong: the storm may not materialize, it might track north leaving us with only liquid rain, it might track south leaving us with just flurries. Those are all things that have happened with previous systems this season.
The forecasters at the National Weather Service at Paducah are much more vague in their current forecast, and rightfully so. Their afternoon technical discussion states:
SIMPLY PUT...THE MODELS CONTINUE HAVE SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH THE SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHAT IS EVIDENT IS...THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHAT WILL REMAIN UNCLEAR UNTIL THE MODELS STABILIZE INCLUDES...THE STORM TRACK...DEGREE OF COLD AIR AND ULTIMATELY PRECIP TYPE. IT CONTINUES TO BE A STORM WORTH WATCHING. BUT FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A VERY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO MINIMIZE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST MESSAGE FROM ONE ISSUANCE TO THE NEXT. RAIN OR SNOW WORDING WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW. TRYING TO BE MORE SPECIFIC THAN THAT WOULD BE AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY. THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY FOR A MIX (SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN). THAT KIND OF DETAIL CAN COME LATER.
We'll just have to wait and see.
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