It's a Moderate Risk kind of day

We've been upgraded to a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms today as a powerful system moves in this afternoon.

The greatest threat is high winds. We have a 45% chance of seeing severe winds within 25 miles of a point.

This morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS in Paducah explains the situation (emphasis added):

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. A VIGOROUS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO CARTER AND RIPLEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AROUND NOON...REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 3 PM...AND THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH 9 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WITHIN THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...GENERALLY NEAR THE BOOT HEEL REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE AND A HALF TO 3 INCHES. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE LAKES AND PENNYRILE REGIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.