Moderate Risk of severe storms for Thursday
First Law of Missouri Weather: The weather never stays nice for very long.
We had snow and cold last week, finally followed by nice weather on Sunday. Of course it wasn't meant to last. We now face a good chance of thunderstorms today and tomorrow, followed by below-average temperatures for the weekend. At least I don't see any snow in the forecast.
We're under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight, with large hail and high winds the biggest threat.
The worst weather, however, is expected on Thursday, when we're squarely in the Moderate Risk zone.
This morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook from Paducah states, "SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS."
In technical terms, the Paducah forecast discussion explains, "DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THU AFTN IN THE WARM SECTOR WELL AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THESE STORMS...MORE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD GET GOING ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF THU AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE MCS'S AND TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT ACCELERATES EASTWARD."
"Discrete rotating storms" = Supercells, those cute little blobs on the radar capable of dropping a tornado at any time. Not good.
"MCS's" = Mesoscale Convective Systems, those large clusters of storms on the radar featuring swaths of red and yellow. In other words, Big Blobs of Badness. Not good either.
Meanwhile, these storms are expected to drop heavy rain, with the computer models projecting 3+ inch totals.
Welcome to April!
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