Warm but ugly

The warm weather has finally arrived, but with the clouds, drizzle, and wind, it's a little hard to enjoy.

We're still under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, but the system doesn't look as impressive for Southeast Missouri as it did earlier.

A squall line is expected to develop this afternoon, but the computer models are suggesting that this line won't get its act together until after it has moved to our east.

The amount of rainfall is expected to be limited, with the computer models continuing to show a protective bubble around Cape Girardeau.

Indeed, this morning's forecast discussion from Paducah mentions that we are in a limbo zone where the system isn't as strong as areas to the north and south: "IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE BETTER LARGE-SCALE FORCING TO THE NORTH AND BETTER THERMODYNAMICS TO THE SOUTH."

This is still a potent system, so anything is possible, but it does appear -- fingers crossed -- that we'll dodge the really nasty stuff. It might be a different story in the Moderate Risk zone over parts of Western Kentucky and Tennessee, however.