One hideously complicated forecast
Computer models are a lot like Asian carp. Both flip-flop constantly, and they will jump and smack you in the face when you least expect it.
Expect plenty of flip-flopping from the models over the next week with three different systems threatening to bring snow, sleet, ice, and plain rain... but not necessarily in that order. Afterward, we get to enjoy the fourth visit of the season from our dear friend, the Polar Vortex.
System #1, Friday-Saturday
It appears that temperatures will stay well above freezing, keeping almost all precipitation as POUR (Plain Old Uneventful Rain). I say "almost" because a cold front Saturday night might allow temperatures to drop enough for the rain to briefly change to snow. Total rainfall appears to be around one-quarter inch:
System #2, Sunday
This second weathermaker is currently projected to miss Cape Girardeau, but it could bring some light snow (1 or 2 inches) to areas south of Sikeston. It wouldn't take much for this to shift to the north, however.
System #3, Tuesday
Our third system is the one to watch. Earlier, the computer models were suggesting a big snowstorm, but now they have carp-flopped over to an ice storm. Yes, I said it. Ice storm.
The current Cape Girardeau forecast from the National Weather Service shows:
MONDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
TUESDAY: FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 30.
Right now the bulk of the precipitation would come Tuesday in the form of freezing rain with temperatures right at or below freezing. The experts at the Climate Prediction Center are highlighting the freezing rain risk (pink) in their U.S. Hazards Outlook.
This afternoon's forecast discussion from Paducah states, "SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL FIVE DAYS OUT AND THE MODELS HAVE NOT LOCKED INTO AGREEMENT ON THE LOW TRACK...IT WOULD BE PREMATURE TO SPECULATE ON ICE OR SNOW AMOUNTS."
In other words, anything can happen, and the computer models are likely to show all kinds of crazy things between now and then. The track of the low pressure system will be critical, as usual, in determining whether we get mostly liquid rain, mostly freezing rain, mostly sleet, or mostly snow.
Polar Vortex Part IV
Regardless of the outcome of the Tuesday storm, we can expect another visit from an Arctic airmass, with temperatures forecast to drop to 9°F Wednesday night.
Our cold winter should continue well into February, with the 8-14 day outlook still leaning toward below-average temperatures.
One historic day
Yesterday brought a truly bizarre weather situation. Every state in the U.S. had snow on the ground somewhere -- except Missouri. Florida had a small pocket of snow at the tip of the Panhandle. Hawaii had fresh snow at the summit of Mauna Kea. Arkansas had isolated snow in the higher elevations of the Ozarks. Even southern Louisiana had a wide swatch of snow.
But we had zilch in Missouri, unless you count a few piles of dirty snow around parking lots in St. Louis.
So perhaps our protective bubble, which worked so beautifully to keep Missouri snow-free this week, will continue and deflect the upcoming winter storms.
Or maybe we're going to pay dearly this time.
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