What does a wind chill of -20F feel like? We'll find out soon.
Next week's Arctic blast is likely to bring temperatures below zero, with wind chills potentially dropping below minus 20°F.
In their morning discussion, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Paducah advise that wind chills are likely to reach the threshold for a "Wind Chill Warning" -- a type of warning that has never been issued by the Paducah office. They explain:
WIND CHILLS WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY...WITH A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR REGION. FORECAST WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY RANGE OF MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20 FOR FOUR CONSECUTIVE PERIODS...FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO MEET WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA OF MINUS 20 OR LOWER OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. A WIND CHILL WARNING HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED BY THE PADUCAH NWS OFFICE SINCE IT WAS ESTABLISHED IN THE MID 90'S. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS ARCTIC OUTBREAK WARRANTS EARLY PREPARATION.
Last winter, we saw the first-ever Blizzard Warning issued by Paducah. That storm was somewhat of a dud (we didn't get as much snow or wind as expected), but it's unlikely that this upcoming Arctic blast will be a dud temperature wise.
As for snowfall, though, it's hard to say. The latest models are nudging the track of the low-pressure system farther north than before, now putting it through the Missouri Bootheel instead of central or southern Arkansas.
This is less favorable for a big snow at Cape Girardeau, since a northern track leads to warmer air. The precipitation could start as liquid rain Saturday before changing to snow overnight. This would reduce snowfall totals, but might actually make road conditions worse, since the rain could wash away the salt pre-treatment.
Even with the less favorable track, we're still likely to see a decent snowfall. Current projections from the Weather Prediction Center (based on a composite of various computer models) show these probabilities for Cape:
80% chance of seeing 2+ inches
50% chance of seeing 4+ inches
5% chance of seeing 8+ inches
We're right on the border between "heavy snow" and "squat", so this thing could go either way. Even if we don't get a big snow, however, this next winter storm -- with temperatures and wind chills not seen in decades -- should be one to remember.
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