Get ready for a "souped up atmosphere"

Today's bulletins from the National Weather Service in Paducah have used some ominous wording the describe the threat of heavy rain and flooding over the next few days.

In their afternoon discussion, the forecasters warn that copious amounts of moisture will be available Wednesday afternoon, an amount that is "off the charts" for this time of year (if it pans out). They mention a "souped up atmosphere", which is not exactly a comforting phrase in the middle of a major flood event.

The Paducah office released a Hydrologic Outlook this morning which explains the situation:

THE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SETTING UP A SCENARIO WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LOWER OHIO RIVER BOUNDARY DURING THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD.

WITH THE BOUNDARY STRADDLED IN THE VICINITY AND NOT MOVING VERY MUCH OVER A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM AND 'TOP' THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN THE INITIATION OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

AN AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATED RAINFALL FORECAST IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS...DUE TO THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE MEAN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVERTOP IT...THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAIN CELLS COULD PROPAGATE OVER THE SAME AREAS IN REPETITION. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE REALIZED. THAT WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING...AT LEAST ON A LOCALIZED SCALE...ESPECIALLY IF IT FELL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS.

Another round of rain is also predicted for early next week, but the computer models are struggling -- as they often do -- to pin down the details.

More bad news from Oklahoma

Last week's deadly tornado near El Reno, Oklahoma, has now been classified as a EF5 monster that had a maximum width of 2.6 miles. This appears to be a new all-time record, and helps explain why so many storm chasers were caught in a precarious situation.

A statement from the NWS reports:

METEOROLOGISTS WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND RESEARCHERS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE INFORMATION RELATED TO THE MAY 31 EL RENO TORNADO.

WITH THIS INVESTIGATION... THE TORNADO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EF5 TORNADO BASED ON VELOCITY DATA FROM THE RESEARCH MOBILE RADAR DATA FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA RAXPOL RADAR. IN ADDITION... THE WIDTH OF TORNADO WAS MEASURED BY THE MOBILE RADAR DATA TO BE 2.6 MILES AFTER THE TORNADO PASSED EAST OF US HIGHWAY 81 SOUTH OF EL RENO. THIS WIDTH IS THE WIDTH OF THE TORNADO ITSELF AND DOES NOT INCLUDE THE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS NEAR THE TORNADO AS DETERMINED BY THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MOBILE RADAR DATA. THE 2.6 MILE TORNADO PATH WIDTH IS BELIEVED TO BE THE WIDEST TORNADO ON RECORD IN THE UNITED STATES.