100% chance of... something

The forecast continues to deteriorate, with a "near 100 percent" chance of precipitation now forecast for tomorrow. But what kind of precip? That's the question.

Earlier forecasts suggested that the temperature would rise above freezing during the afternoon, hitting 34°F or so at Cape Girardeau, and melting any snow/sleet/ice/whatever that accumulated during the morning. In that scenario, Winter Storm "Cupid" would be mostly a non-event.

Now the forecast has dropped a few degrees, projecting that the temperature will hover around 30° or 31° all afternoon. Surprise! That could produce a drastic change in the severity of the storm.

As usual, Southeast Missouri is straddling the dividing line between "no big deal" and "a huge mess." The official forecast is leaning toward "a huge mess", but it could go either way:

THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN FREEZING RAIN LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO SLEET ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 30. TEMPERATURE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

No matter what falls from the sky, or where the temperature ends up, we can safely say that we're going to see a 100% chance of something falling from the sky. We just don't know what.

Here's the latest output from the Dartboard Forecast Guesser System: