Dodging the bullet (maybe)
The forecast for later this week looks ugly at first glance, with the "F" word mentioned more than once:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SLEET POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT RAIN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EVENING... THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING SOUTH 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
As I write this, the computer models are suggesting that we will dodge the bullet -- just barely -- and avoid a major ice or snow storm. Most of the precipitation will come during the afternoon Thursday, when the temperature will rise just above freezing in the mid-30s. Any snow, sleet, ice or other frozen thingies that fall during the morning will quickly melt in the afternoon. By the time temperatures drop below freezing again after dark, the precipitation will be moving out.
The worst weather is forecast to the west (freezing rain) and north (snow). The latest freezing rain projection shows that south-central Missouri and extreme northern Arkansas have the best odds (70%) of seeing at least a quarter-inch of ice accumulation. Cape Girardeau's chance is 20%.
Heavy snowfall shouldn't get any closer than St. Louis, which has a 20% chance of seeing at least 4 inches.
Even though the storm doesn't look very bad for Southeast Missouri, these things can change in a hurry. That's what happened with the 2008 ice storm. On the Saturday before that storm, the forecast showed that the wintry weather would be confined to our north and west. Then on Sunday the forecast took a drastic nosedive. The storm arrived on Monday -- and was far worse than expected.
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