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Update 11 AM: We're now under a Moderate Risk

Posted Tuesday, January 29, 2013, at 11:01 AM

In its 10:20 AM update, the Storm Prediction Center has now upgraded all of Southeast Missouri to a Moderate Risk for severe storms:

Their technical discussion states, "THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS NEAR THE MS RIVER."

This latest outlook shows a higher chance for tornadoes. In particular, we are within the hatched area for "10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point."

High winds are also a major threat (45% probability of severe wind gusts within 25 miles):

Update 11 AM: We're now under a Moderate Risk

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