Those wild and crazy computer models

The heavier snow has finally reached Cape Girardeau in the last hour. On national radar, the green band of precipitation has managed to push its way northward (as of 2 PM):

It appears that the really heavy snow remains over Oklahoma. We can expect that blob to arrive tonight and deliver most of the accumulating snows.

As usual, the computer models have flip-flopped. The GFS model, which until now had been predicting the highest accumulations, is now more conservative. It only gives Cape 5-6 inches, with no location in Southeast Missouri receiving more than 8 inches.

However, the NAM model, which had been rather stingy, now paints 6-8 inches for most of Cape County. It now wants to bring 10+ inches for a portion of Perry County (this seems really hard to believe).

If the NAM comes anywhere close to reality, then Nashville, Tennessee, could be the big winners of the snow sweepstakes with a truly historic 12-18 inch total. Then again, while the models represent the state-of-the-art in meteorological algorithms, ultimately they are just guesses.

Since the models have performed poorly so far, I will stick with my original prediction of 1-14 inches of snow for Cape Girardeau.