Staggering projections hidden by headlines

Several pundits recently have written interesting pieces about the news that has been overshadowed by terrorist-related events since Sept. 11. For example, many Americans may still be unaware that the U.S. Postal Service announced plans to increase the cost of a first-class postage stamp on the same day the World Trade Center and the Pentagon were attacked.

There are even bigger stories that have received little notice as attention-grabbing headlines about bombing in Afghanistan and the spread of anthrax by mail continue to dominate. One of those stories is about another killer that is expected to claim millions of victims over the next decade: AIDS.

This week, researchers in South Africa issued a report that estimated 7 million South Africans could die of AIDS by 2010. Reports in other parts of Africa where AIDS in endemic predict as much as 25 percent of the population in some countries will be stricken by the disease.

The total death count from AIDS in Africa alone is likely to reach 25 million or more. By contrast, the terrorist attacks in the United States last month killed some 6,000 individuals.

There is nothing that can diminish the anguish and suffering of the victims and their loved ones in the wake of Sept. 11. Neither can the prospect of human loss in such gigantic proportions on our largest continent be tossed off as a minor news story in the back of the newspaper -- or not reported at all by most broadcast media.

In South Africa, AIDS will be responsible for nearly two-thirds of all deaths within 10 years if current projections hold true. And the anticipated life expectancy for South Africans will plunge to 41 years from the current 56 years. Contrast that with the continued increase in U.S. longevity projections (see editorial below).

The report indicated it would take radical changes in personal behavior and significant government intervention to change the dire AIDS forecast in South Africa.

The South African government has been widely criticized with the nation's borders for its handling of the AIDS epidemic. Indeed, the government had wanted to delay this latest AIDS report. Critics complained the government was trying to suppress the report to hide the extent of the problem.

Regardless of the politics and policy involved, the death toll from AIDS will be staggering unless appropriate steps are taken, including a massive education program and finding ways to make medicines more widely available.

Not too many years ago, U.S. lawmakers who saw the results of African famine with their own eyes attempted to draw the world's -- and, certainly, this country's -- attention to the devastating loss of life. Their efforts were all but muted by other headlines of the day.