Missouri's gap

Missouri's budgeting process is a mixture of financial prudence and political policy. Early revenue estimates indicate this year's budget process will be brutal.

To start with, the governor's office and legislative leaders have agreed on a consensus revenue estimate, which serves as something of a starting point. It is a guesstimate of how much revenue the state will take in. The CRE for fiscal year 2011, which starts July 1 of this year, shows just how difficult the budgeting process will be.

State revenue peaked at $8.003 billion in fiscal year 2008 and then dropped to $7.451 billion (actual dollars) in 2009 and even further to $6.971 billion (newly revised estimate) in 2010, the current fiscal year. The estimate for 2011 shows a modest increase to $7.223 billion -- perhaps a billion dollars less than anticipated spending needs.

State revenue is just part of the complex budget picture. The total budget -- $23.7 billion for the current fiscal year -- includes pass-through federal funding that is earmarked for specific programs.

Keep in mind that Missouri is currently relying on federal stimulus dollars that won't likely be replaced in the future, making the gap between revenue and spending even wider.