Camping on the moon

In one of the most startling images in a movie filled with them, the astronauts in "2001: A Space Odyssey" discover an obviously man-made monolith on the surface of the moon. A year before man actually stepped onto the moon in July 1969, the movie artfully asked us to consider again our place in the universe and not to assume we know enough.

Now President Bush has offered an ambitious plan to build an inhabited camp on the moon by 2015 and eventually for astronauts to blast off for Mars. His message: Our place is to explore the universe.

An entirely new kind of vehicle would be required, one that can propel a ship out of Earth's orbit. A vehicle that could ferry crews to the moon and eventually to Mars doesn't exist.

Bush envisions using the moon as a fuel depot and construction site that would make the more distant forays into space less difficult.

The cost of the lunar part of the plan has been estimated at $120 billion. Putting men and women on Mars could require five or 10 times more.

The initial cost of the program would be much less: $1 billion over the first five years, in part because the United States would shut down its problem-plagued shuttle program and pull out of the international space station.

One of the long-running debates in space exploration has been over whether manned or robotic missions make more sense. The manned missions create legends we know of as Neil and Buzz and Deke. When it comes to marketing the space problem, taxpayers seem to respond best to heroes. But robotic missions by far have accounted for most of our space exploration. They are more cost effective and don't risk lives.

The president's initiative makes it clear that he, at least, and his science advisers think the next steps into space must be taken by people. Robotic exploration, as the excursion of the Spirit rover on Mars is proving, can be exciting, but it still is not so far removed from a video game.

For decades NASA put billions of dollars into research and development, laying the groundwork for many of today's scientific, medical and technological miracles developed by private enterprise.

The possibilities this new plan might offer business and industry are not yet known, but the huge cost suggests that ultimately a private-government partnership -- including corporate speculation -- must be a part of the financial plan.