Editorial

2001 recession ended -- in 2001

It's not always easy to tell what, exactly, the economy is doing. If economists were able to compile information the same way fans keeps stats at a baseball game, there would always be a clear-cut snapshot of where the economy is, where it has been and where it is going.

But it took a group of economists 20 months to officially declare that the recession of 2001 ended in November of that year.

For economists, that's not bad.

The 1990-91 recession also officially lasted eight months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of when U.S. recessions begin and end. But the bureau wasn't able to define the beginning and end of that economic downturn until December 1992 -- more than a year after it ended.

A recession defines a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy.

What made the 2001 recession so slippery was the fact that unemployment figures failed to reflect a resumption of economic growth at the end of the downturn. In fact, jobless figures have continued to rise, hitting a nine-year high of 6.4 percent in June.

For millions of Americans who have become so heavily dependent on stock markets, thanks to tax-deferring retirement programs like 401(k) plans, the economy tends to be measured in the ups and downs on Wall Street. While that's not how recessions are measured, there is no getting around the fact that markets and the economy in general have some close bonds.

But measuring a recession has always been tough. Because of the way economic data are measured and recorded, downswings -- and upswings too -- have already occurred by the time anyone has firm figures to confirm movements in either direction.

As a result, a recession usually has been under way for some time before it's officially identified. And when the economy improves, it takes more time to figure out what the indicators are saying and whether or not those markers are a trend or a temporary blip.

As time goes by, the facts become plainer. Now we know for sure that the economy contracted in the first three quarters of 2001. The gross domestic product -- the country's total output of goods and services -- began growing again in the fourth quarter of 2001 and has been going up since then.

But growth is relative, and not all growth is robust enough to carry along increases in stocks and to fuel job growth.

Also keep in mind that since the 2001 recession the nation's businesses have been battered by scandal, fraud, terrorism and war, which has undermined investor confidence and created an atmosphere of uncertainty at a time when the economy needed a solid base to build on.

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