Weather or Not http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/ en-us Harvey's heavy rain hitting the Bootheel, likely to miss Cape http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/69755 The remnants of Harvey have arrived this morning in Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, with isolated areas already receiving 6 inches according to radar estimates.Today's Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the national Weather Prediction Center shows a High Risk area for flash flooding to our south covering portions of Arkansas, the Bootheel, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Cape Girardeau is right on the edge of the Slight Risk zone.That Slight Risk is a hedge that the storm could track... Thu, 31 Aug 2017 11:15:08 -0500 Harvey could bring heavy rain, but not as much as first thought http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/69729 The computer models are nudging the track of Harvey to the east, putting us in line for 1 or 2 inches of rain at Cape Girardeau over the next few days. This is far less than the 4-6 inches that the projections indicated yesterday. It appears the rain will just miss the St. Louis area which is currently experiencing moderate drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Tue, 29 Aug 2017 10:50:08 -0500 Remnants of Harvey could bring heavy rain here http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/69724 At some point the rain in Houston must stop, and Tropical Storm Harvey will head to the northeast. It appears that the remnants of Harvey will reach Southeast Missouri later this week, and could bring 4+ inches of rain to Cape Girardeau. This graphic from the National Hurricane Center paints 4-6 inches of rain over the next five days for much of Southeast Missouri (in yellow), and even higher totals (in orange) for the Bootheel: Of course that's nothing compared to the insane 30+... Mon, 28 Aug 2017 17:50:28 -0500 Eclipse forecast, 0.9 days to go: Not looking as good http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/69665 The latest forecast for Cape Girardeau has downgraded the Monday afternoon forecast to "partly sunny" instead of "mostly sunny". This is the result of some of the computer models showing thunderstorms developing right on top of us during the eclipse. For example, today's 12Z run of the GFS paints a maddeningly large blob of rain over eastern Missouri at 1 PM (18Z) as shown by the charts at coolwx.com: The NAM computer model isn't quite as robust with the rain, but it still projects a small... Sun, 20 Aug 2017 16:52:33 -0500 Eclipse forecast, 3 days to go: So far, so good http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/69651 The forecast for Monday afternoon continues to hold at "mostly sunny" for Cape Girardeau. Yesterday some of the computer model runs were hinting at higher chances of rain and clouds, but today the models have trended drier. Currently the projections show 30% cloud cover at 1 PM on Monday (that implies the sky would be 70% clear). The chance of rain is only 13% for Monday afternoon. Central and Northwest Missouri have a higher risk (30%-ish) for precipitation. One... Fri, 18 Aug 2017 10:39:45 -0500 Eclipse forecast, 5 days to go: "Mostly sunny" http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/69638 The Cape Girardeau forecast for Monday from the National Weather Service is calling for "mostly sunny" skies with a "slight chance of showers and thunderstorms." Of course the devil is in the details. "Mostly sunny" implies there will be some clouds, and it only takes one big cloud covering the sun right at totality to ruin your view. More specifically, the forecast calls for cloud coverage to be 36% at Cape around the time of the total eclipse. The National... Wed, 16 Aug 2017 17:29:01 -0500 Eclipse forecast, 7 days to go: Looks good http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/69609 The forecast for the total solar eclipse next Monday will be closely watched indeed. The massive crowds expected to descend on Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois may shift somewhere else entirely if the outlook appears dreary and cloudy. Right now the forecast looks good with typical August heat, humidity, and clear skies on tap. But we're still far enough away that any forecast should be taken with a metric ton of salt. In today's morning forecast discussion, the National... Mon, 14 Aug 2017 09:36:16 -0500 We're now under an Excessive Heat Warning http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/69434 With the temperatures and heat indices continuing to rise, the National Weather Service has upgraded the region to an Excessive Heat Warning for the rest of today and Saturday. The warning states, "PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 110 TO 115 DEGREES TODAY AND SATURDAY." Actual air temperatures should remain below triple-digits. The record highs of 102 at Cape Girardeau for both July 21 and 22 should remain safe. Sunday will bring a chance of thunderstorms and cloudiness that... Fri, 21 Jul 2017 13:36:16 -0500 Heat Advisory issued for Wednesday through Sunday http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/69411 We've been fortunate that we haven't seen any major heat waves this summer, but that will change later this week as we experience high temperatures in the upper 90s combined with copious levels of humidity. A Heat Advisory goes into effect noon Wednesday and lasts through Sunday evening. The only silver lining is that the weather service opted to issue a Heat Advisory instead of a more serious Excessive Heat Warning for Southeast Missouri. Right now the temperature and heat index... Tue, 18 Jul 2017 15:35:22 -0500 Flash Flood Watch still in effect http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68923 Our Flash Flood Watch has been extended to Friday morning as more rain is on the way tonight and tomorrow. The computer models are still cranking out 3+ inch totals for the St. Louis area, with lesser amounts here. We should see dry weather for several days afterward. The text of the Flash Flood Watch states: A SECOND ROUND OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THIRD ROUND OF ENHANCED RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND... Wed, 03 May 2017 16:51:15 -0500 Flash Flood Watch issued; I-55 to be closed south of St. Louis http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68910 This is turning into a very bad case of déjà vu as our flooding situation at Cape Girardeau is playing out almost exactly the same as the January 2016 flood. Right now the forecast for the Mississippi River at Cape calls for a crest of 48.5 feet over the weekend, just inches below the January 2, 2016, all-time record of 48.86 feet. But yet another storm system is poised to bring more heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday. Right now it appears that we are likely to see 1.5-2.5 inches at Cape,... Tue, 02 May 2017 18:01:17 -0500 More rain on the way http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68892 Yet another round of heavy rain is poised to arrive Wednesday and Thursday. Although not as insane as the last storm, this next system could easily drop widespread 1.5+ inch totals across Southeast Missouri, and perhaps even 3+ inch totals to the north around St. Louis. This map from the NWS Weather Prediction Center shows estimated rainfall totals over the next 5 days by taking a consensus of the computer models: One particular computer model run, today's 12Z GFS, is very bullish about... Mon, 01 May 2017 16:05:58 -0500 Flood forecasts keep getting worse http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68883 Since Sunday morning, the forecasts for many area rivers have been adjusted upward. And to make matters worse, additional rainfall (1 or 2 inches) appears likely for the middle of this week. Here is a roundup of area rivers as of Sunday evening at 10 PM: ** Van Buren The Current River appears to be cresting at Van Buren. It has reached 37.2 feet, obliterating the old record of 29 feet set in 1904. The damage at Van Buren could prove to be catastrophic. ** Doniphan At Doniphan, the Current... Sun, 30 Apr 2017 22:19:56 -0500 Record flooding imminent on Current and St. Francis rivers http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68876 As feared, the computer models which projected epic rainfall across Southeast Missouri have come to fruition -- and then some. We've seen widespread 8+ inch totals, as depicted by this map of radar-estimated rainfall during the last 7 days. Here's a roundup of flood forecasts along area rivers: Van Buren The Current River at Van Buren is poised to shatter the previous record. In 1904, the river reached a stage of 29.0 feet. Right now the river has already exceeded that at... Sun, 30 Apr 2017 10:31:29 -0500 Mississippi River expected to reach major flood level at Cape Girardeau http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68862 The latest river stage forecast was released this afternoon and shows a dramatic rise in the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau. The river, currently sitting at 30.5 ft., is now expected to jump to 40 ft. by Tuesday morning and then crest at around 43 ft. on Friday. This forecast takes into account the heavy rain poised to arrive this weekend. If the river does indeed hit 43.0 feet, it would represent the 12th highest crest on record at Cape Girardeau. (The all-time record came Jan. 2 of... Fri, 28 Apr 2017 13:29:32 -0500 We might be seeing an awful lot of the "F" word soon http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68852 As I write this, a squall line of severe thunderstorms is passing through Southeast Missouri. But I'm more concerned about a threat that starts with the letter "F": flooding. The computer models have been projecting copious amounts of rainfall for later this week. The NWS Weather Prediction Center, using a blend of various computer models, currently paints a large area within the bullseye for 7+ inches of rain over the next five days. We've seen this kind of graphic... Wed, 26 Apr 2017 14:35:20 -0500 Everything is in the forecast http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68483 March is usually the peak season for weather insanity, and this year is no different. Just about every type of weather is possible during the next few days, including: unseasonable warmth, rain, thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, hail, snow, sleet, freezing rain, hard freeze, and a daylight-saving time change. After a sunny day in the 70s, this evening could bring thunderstorms. As of this writing, Cape Girardeau is in the "Marginal Risk" zone for severe thunderstorms, but areas... Thu, 09 Mar 2017 09:57:29 -0600 Moderate Risk of Severe Storms today; tornadoes looking more likely http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68422 We've been upgraded to a Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. Large hail, high winds, and tornadoes are all possible, especially overnight. Of particular concern is the growing risk of tornadoes. The latest discussion from the Storm Prediction Center mentions the potential for "nocturnal significant tornadoes". Basically this means that strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater) could move through after dark, and that's never a good thing. Cape Girardeau is right in the middle of... Tue, 28 Feb 2017 12:07:52 -0600 Random photos of the Great Ice Storm of '17 http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68067 We narrowly missed an ugly situation this morning as the temperature at Cape Girardeau remained just warm enough -- barely -- to preclude freezing problems on the roads. The fact that the heaviest showers arrived during daylight hours also helped. As I write this, the temperature at the Cape airport has climbed to 33F and the ice is slowly dripping off the trees and power lines. Folks to the north and west are still in line for an epic ice storm. But this weekend the only thing we face is... Fri, 13 Jan 2017 13:27:54 -0600 Here comes the "F" word http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68052 The "F" word -- freezing rain -- is in the forecast for Friday the 13th, but right now it appears that Cape Girardeau will just miss most of the ice. Areas to the north and west, however, might see another story. The probabilities from the Weather Prediction Center, based on a consensus of the computer models, put Cape right on the southeast edge of the ice blob. Central Missouri, particularly around Rolla, appears to be in the bullseye. The map below shows the probability of... Wed, 11 Jan 2017 17:03:20 -0600