Weather or Not http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/ en-us Wind Advisory + Winter Weather Advisory = Fun http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/65287 We're now under two different kinds of advisories from the National Weather Service: a Wind Advisory and a Winter Weather Advisory. Both last until 6 PM Wednesday. The Wind Advisory states that "sustained winds 20 to 30 MPH will be common...with frequent gusts 40 to 50 MPH." And the Winter Weather Advisory calls for heavy, wet snow on Wednesday. In their afternoon discussion, the forecasters at Paducah explain: CURRENT THINKING IS THE SNOW COULD COME DOWN HARD ENOUGH... Tue, 23 Feb 2016 16:21:25 -0600 Warm weather on the way http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/65189 After a few more days of chilliness, it appears that above-average temperatures will arrive next week. The forecast calls for highs in the 50s by next Thursday, and highs in the 60s on Friday. The warm spell could stick around for awhile: the 8-14 Day Outlook paints warmer than average temperatures over much of the country. In the meantime, we have more cold and snow coming this weekend. The computer models have been doing their usual flip-flopping, although it appears we will get some snow... Fri, 12 Feb 2016 17:41:34 -0600 First storm underdelivered, second storm may not deliver at all http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64927 Late Tuesday night, one of the computer models showed us receiving an epic 18+ inches of snow by Friday. Now that same model shows us getting little if any additional snow. Why the difference? The track of the next storm has been pushed farther and farther to the south. It's now so far south that it could bring snow to northern Mississippi. To get a big snow here, storms typically need to track across southern Arkansas. That looked to be the case yesterday, but the consensus of... Wed, 20 Jan 2016 17:27:59 -0600 What a crazy forecast http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64908 We've been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for tonight, with 3-5 inches of snow expected across a wide swath of Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois, and possibly more in isolated areas. The regional radar is already showing some activity, although it may be several hours before snowflakes start reaching the ground. In their warning, the National Weather Service in Paducah describes the timeline for this storm: SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND... Tue, 19 Jan 2016 12:56:32 -0600 Chance of snow this weekend, but not much to get excited about http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64791 Our first chance of white stuff this year comes Saturday evening when rain is expected to give way to snow. These rain-changing-to-snow scenarios rarely pan out, as the below-freezing temperatures have a tendency to arrive about 3.2 seconds after the heavy precipitation has departed. This afternoon's forecast discussion from NWS Paducah explains, "The rain should mix and possibly turn over to snow later Saturday or Saturday evening. Right now the models suggest the dry air will come fast... Thu, 07 Jan 2016 15:59:00 -0600 Flooding Q&A http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64750 Although we're not entirely out of the woods yet, the river is receding at a steady clip at Cape Girardeau, so hopefully we'll soon be able to return to our regularly scheduled discussion of snowstorms. In the meantime, here are some answers to questions that you might have about the flooding. ** How much higher did the river get versus the record? At Cape Girardeau, the previous record high stage was 48.49 feet set Aug. 8, 1993. This time, the river reached 48.86 feet at 10 PM on Jan.... Sun, 03 Jan 2016 21:10:42 -0600 Flash Flood Watch issued in anticipation of Illinois levee failures http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64742 The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Jackson, Union, and Alexander counties in Illinois, to advise of potential levee problems. We really don't want to see this upgraded to a Flash Flood Warning. Here's the text of the watch: AT 7 PM...THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS AND STATE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED POTENTIALLY SERIOUS PROBLEMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVEE SYSTEM. WATER IS OVERTOPPING A LEVEE IN ALEXANDER COUNTY SOUTH OF... Fri, 01 Jan 2016 22:43:38 -0600 Cape and Thebes to shatter river stage records http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64732 The latest river stage forecast now puts the Cape Girardeau crest at 50.0 ft., well above the 48.5 ft. all-time record. Although scary, the revised forecast does not pose a serious threat for the Cape Girardeau floodwall, which has a height of 54 feet on the gage. At Thebes, the forecast now calls for a crest of 49 ft., which would shatter the record of 45.9 ft. The only good news with the latest forecasts is that the Ohio River is trending not quite as high: the crest forecast at Cairo... Thu, 31 Dec 2015 18:01:32 -0600 River update: Lower crest forecast at Chester, but Cape and Thebes forecasts unchanged http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64710 The latest round of river stage forecasts brought some good news for Chester and nearby areas, as the current projections have dropped the crest over two feet at Chester from previous forecasts. A revised crest of 47.5 is much better than 49.7. In addition, the river has actually stopped rising at the Chester gage, although this is only a temporary phenomenon. A statement from the National Weather Service in St. Louis explains: THIS MORNINGS RIVER MODEL RUN SHOWS DELAYED FLOWS FROM... Wed, 30 Dec 2015 15:59:18 -0600 Record flood stage still in forecast for Cape http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64688 The latest forecast for the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau still shows the river could reach the all-time record stage of 48.5 ft. on Jan. 2. Downstream, the forecast for Thebes shows a crest of 47.5 ft. on that gage, which would shatter the old record of 45.9 ft. The situation is ridiculous upstream as well, where the forecast for the Chester gage continues to show a crest of 49.8 ft., just above the record of 49.7 ft. This stage could potentially overtop multiple levees on both the... Mon, 28 Dec 2015 17:56:57 -0600 Latest river forecast: We're likely to be witnessing history soon http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64675 When I saw the number 48.5, I had to rub my eyes and double-check what I was seeing. But, yes, it's real: the latest forecast for the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau calls for a crest of 48.5 feet on Jan. 2 The all-time record is 48.49 feet set during the Not-So-Great Flood of 1993. Of course, river stage forecasts are not an exact science, but we appear to have a reasonable chance of tying or breaking the record. It will all depend on exactly how much additional rainfall drops... Sun, 27 Dec 2015 17:18:55 -0600 Falling white things from the sky... but not snow http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64638 With unseasonable warmth expected during the next week, a White Christmas isn't in the cards. However, we could see something else that is frozen and white: hailstones. Tomorrow is poised to deliver two rounds of thunderstorms. The first round -- possibly with small hail and strong winds -- is expected to race through Southeast Missouri tomorrow morning. A second round is possible in the afternoon. This round is capable of stronger storms (supercells with large hail, high winds and... Tue, 22 Dec 2015 15:56:16 -0600 Rare December flooding on the way http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64602 The Mississippi River is rising fast at Cape Girardeau and will likely reach "moderate" flood stage, or 37 feet on the gage, early next week. A review of historical crests at Cape Girardeau shows that flooding during December is rare. Indeed, none of the top 30 crests at Cape have occurred during December. The closest was a 35.9 ft. crest on Jan. 8, 2005. Another round is wet weather is expected to arrive Sunday night and bring on-and-off chances for rain through at least Christmas Eve.... Thu, 17 Dec 2015 16:58:58 -0600 White Christmas outlook not too good http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64564 We didn't just break temperature records over the weekend -- we obliterated them. On Saturday, the Cape airport hit 71°F, breaking the previous record of 65° from 1991. Sunday also surpassed the record by 6 degrees: we hit 70° and the previous record was 64° from 1984. The biggest record to fall, though, was the low temperature on Saturday: we only dropped to 63°. On every previous Dec. 12th, the temperature had dropped to 51° or lower. So the low temperature was 12 degrees higher than... Mon, 14 Dec 2015 10:24:51 -0600 Oh look, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect again http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64403 Black Friday is shaping up to be particularly dark and dreary as another round of heavy rainfall arrives Thanksgiving evening and lasts through the entire holiday weekend. A Flash Flood Watch has just been issued for Southeast Missouri, including Cape Girardeau, for Friday morning through evening when the heaviest precip is expected. Current projections put us in the red zone again for 3+ inches of total rainfall during the next five days. Areas to the southwest including Arkansas,... Wed, 25 Nov 2015 15:17:51 -0600 Heavy rain possible next week http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64266 We dodged a bullet yesterday when the tornadoes and high winds remained well to our north. Now we face another upcoming hazard: heavy rain Monday through Wednesday next week. Current projections drop over three inches of rainfall during the next seven days. The Gulf of Mexico will be "open for business" as copious moisture streams northward in our direction. Right now 35% of Missouri is experiencing "Moderate Drought", so the rainfall could be welcome news -- as long as it doesn't prompt... Thu, 12 Nov 2015 14:48:01 -0600 Slight risk of severe storms today, but worst is to our north http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64245 The forecast for this afternoon's thunderstorms isn't quite as bad as before, as we're under a Slight Risk instead of an Enhanced Risk. Right now it appears the best chance for severe storms is north of St. Louis. Nevertheless, we could see one or two rounds of thunderstorms later today, and any of these storms are capable of producing high winds or tornadoes. A lack of moisture and instability, however, could make it hard for the storms to hold together. We shall see. Wed, 11 Nov 2015 10:27:44 -0600 All eyes are on Wednesday for severe thunderstorms http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64227 It's been awhile since we've seen some quality thunderstorms. That could change Wednesday afternoon as the national Storm Prediction Center has already placed Southeast Missouri in the bullseye for an "Enhanced" risk of severe storms (which is more than "Slight" but less than "Moderate"). An email sent this morning to the NWS Paducah storm spotters mailing list best sums up the forecast: Our current outlook for Wednesday/Veterans Day has most of us at an "Enhanced" risk level as of... Mon, 09 Nov 2015 11:31:02 -0600 Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for Thursday night http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64185 Cape Girardeau is right at the northern edge of a Slight Risk zone for severe storms tomorrow. At this point it appears that we could see a squall line move through Thursday night. This squall line, if it develops, should be rather peculiar: it isn't expected to produce much lightning. Despite not being much in the way of a "thunder"storm, this system could still deliver high winds and even tornadoes. This morning's forecast discussion from NWS Paducah explains: "It's not clear cut exactly... Wed, 04 Nov 2015 10:37:32 -0600 Frost Advisory for tonight, but could be colder Saturday night http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64020 With the temperature expected to drop to around 34°F tonight at Cape Girardeau, the National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a Frost Advisory for Friday night. Their bulletin states, "with clear skies and light winds...scattered to widespread frost seems a good possibility." Saturday night is poised to be colder, with Cape Girardeau possibly reaching 32°F. This morning's forecast discussion from Paducah mentions the possibility that another Frost Advisory -- or perhaps even a... Fri, 16 Oct 2015 09:57:06 -0500