Weather or Not en-us Big pattern change coming That was one crazy winter storm. Although Cape Girardeau missed out on the heavy snow, it was amazing to see the 6+ inch totals along a narrow band from Dexter, Sikeston, East Prairie, Cairo, and to Paducah. This map from the National Weather Service shows the official measurements of new snow that fell yesterday. This is on top of the sleet and snow that fell from the previous system. East Prairie, in particular, reported a total snow depth of 11 inches. It's extremely rare... Tue, 16 Jan 2018 16:54:59 -0600 Winter Weather Advisory issued: we could see a little bit of everything Tonight's storm is still poised to bring a mixed bag of freezing rain and sleet, but probably not much snow. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Cape Girardeau and adjacent counties in Missouri starting at 9 PM this evening. Their bulletin states: "Mixed precipitation expected. Snow and ice will result in difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Friday. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch, on top of total ice... Thu, 11 Jan 2018 14:21:44 -0600 Our big storm: We might be disappointed I figure the readers of this blog fall into two camps:1. You don't want any part of any winter storm. No way, no how.2. You'd like to see a quality snowstorm just once this season.Unfortunately, the coming winter storm is likely to make both groups unhappy. We're poised to see a wintry mix followed by an Arctic blast, and that will disappoint the "I-want-spring-already" camp.However, the storm is likely to drop more freezing rain and sleet than snow, so that will disappoint the snow lovers.At... Wed, 10 Jan 2018 17:19:51 -0600 Freezing fog, then unseasonable warmth, then a potential snowstorm We all know the old joke about Missouri weather: "If you don't like it, just wait an hour." That's definitely true this week as we go from one extreme to the other and back again. First, temperatures tonight are expected to drop just below freezing at Cape Girardeau. Today's lovely fog will become tonight's freezing fog, and that could lead to some nasty surprises for unaware drivers early in the morning. By Wednesday, strong south winds will usher in a much... Mon, 08 Jan 2018 16:29:26 -0600 "F" word in forecast, but no reason to panic This has certainly been a strange winter so far. We can't buy a snowflake here, but balmy locations like Brownsville, Texas, and Tallahassee, Florida, have seen accumulating snows.Despite the ridiculously cold airmass in place since Christmas, the next storm system is expected to raise the temperature just enough to prevent snow. It will be just rain. The only question is whether any of this rain will fall as the F-word variety (freezing).The computer models struggle with these kinds of storms... Fri, 05 Jan 2018 09:57:06 -0600 Harvey's heavy rain hitting the Bootheel, likely to miss Cape The remnants of Harvey have arrived this morning in Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, with isolated areas already receiving 6 inches according to radar estimates.Today's Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the national Weather Prediction Center shows a High Risk area for flash flooding to our south covering portions of Arkansas, the Bootheel, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Cape Girardeau is right on the edge of the Slight Risk zone.That Slight Risk is a hedge that the storm could track... Thu, 31 Aug 2017 11:15:08 -0500 Harvey could bring heavy rain, but not as much as first thought The computer models are nudging the track of Harvey to the east, putting us in line for 1 or 2 inches of rain at Cape Girardeau over the next few days. This is far less than the 4-6 inches that the projections indicated yesterday. It appears the rain will just miss the St. Louis area which is currently experiencing moderate drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Tue, 29 Aug 2017 10:50:08 -0500 Remnants of Harvey could bring heavy rain here At some point the rain in Houston must stop, and Tropical Storm Harvey will head to the northeast. It appears that the remnants of Harvey will reach Southeast Missouri later this week, and could bring 4+ inches of rain to Cape Girardeau. This graphic from the National Hurricane Center paints 4-6 inches of rain over the next five days for much of Southeast Missouri (in yellow), and even higher totals (in orange) for the Bootheel: Of course that's nothing compared to the insane 30+... Mon, 28 Aug 2017 17:50:28 -0500 Eclipse forecast, 0.9 days to go: Not looking as good The latest forecast for Cape Girardeau has downgraded the Monday afternoon forecast to "partly sunny" instead of "mostly sunny". This is the result of some of the computer models showing thunderstorms developing right on top of us during the eclipse. For example, today's 12Z run of the GFS paints a maddeningly large blob of rain over eastern Missouri at 1 PM (18Z) as shown by the charts at The NAM computer model isn't quite as robust with the rain, but it still projects a small... Sun, 20 Aug 2017 16:52:33 -0500 Eclipse forecast, 3 days to go: So far, so good The forecast for Monday afternoon continues to hold at "mostly sunny" for Cape Girardeau. Yesterday some of the computer model runs were hinting at higher chances of rain and clouds, but today the models have trended drier. Currently the projections show 30% cloud cover at 1 PM on Monday (that implies the sky would be 70% clear). The chance of rain is only 13% for Monday afternoon. Central and Northwest Missouri have a higher risk (30%-ish) for precipitation. One... Fri, 18 Aug 2017 10:39:45 -0500 Eclipse forecast, 5 days to go: "Mostly sunny" The Cape Girardeau forecast for Monday from the National Weather Service is calling for "mostly sunny" skies with a "slight chance of showers and thunderstorms." Of course the devil is in the details. "Mostly sunny" implies there will be some clouds, and it only takes one big cloud covering the sun right at totality to ruin your view. More specifically, the forecast calls for cloud coverage to be 36% at Cape around the time of the total eclipse. The National... Wed, 16 Aug 2017 17:29:01 -0500 Eclipse forecast, 7 days to go: Looks good The forecast for the total solar eclipse next Monday will be closely watched indeed. The massive crowds expected to descend on Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois may shift somewhere else entirely if the outlook appears dreary and cloudy. Right now the forecast looks good with typical August heat, humidity, and clear skies on tap. But we're still far enough away that any forecast should be taken with a metric ton of salt. In today's morning forecast discussion, the National... Mon, 14 Aug 2017 09:36:16 -0500 We're now under an Excessive Heat Warning With the temperatures and heat indices continuing to rise, the National Weather Service has upgraded the region to an Excessive Heat Warning for the rest of today and Saturday. The warning states, "PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 110 TO 115 DEGREES TODAY AND SATURDAY." Actual air temperatures should remain below triple-digits. The record highs of 102 at Cape Girardeau for both July 21 and 22 should remain safe. Sunday will bring a chance of thunderstorms and cloudiness that... Fri, 21 Jul 2017 13:36:16 -0500 Heat Advisory issued for Wednesday through Sunday We've been fortunate that we haven't seen any major heat waves this summer, but that will change later this week as we experience high temperatures in the upper 90s combined with copious levels of humidity. A Heat Advisory goes into effect noon Wednesday and lasts through Sunday evening. The only silver lining is that the weather service opted to issue a Heat Advisory instead of a more serious Excessive Heat Warning for Southeast Missouri. Right now the temperature and heat index... Tue, 18 Jul 2017 15:35:22 -0500 Flash Flood Watch still in effect Our Flash Flood Watch has been extended to Friday morning as more rain is on the way tonight and tomorrow. The computer models are still cranking out 3+ inch totals for the St. Louis area, with lesser amounts here. We should see dry weather for several days afterward. The text of the Flash Flood Watch states: A SECOND ROUND OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THIRD ROUND OF ENHANCED RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND... Wed, 03 May 2017 16:51:15 -0500 Flash Flood Watch issued; I-55 to be closed south of St. Louis This is turning into a very bad case of déjà vu as our flooding situation at Cape Girardeau is playing out almost exactly the same as the January 2016 flood. Right now the forecast for the Mississippi River at Cape calls for a crest of 48.5 feet over the weekend, just inches below the January 2, 2016, all-time record of 48.86 feet. But yet another storm system is poised to bring more heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday. Right now it appears that we are likely to see 1.5-2.5 inches at Cape,... Tue, 02 May 2017 18:01:17 -0500 More rain on the way Yet another round of heavy rain is poised to arrive Wednesday and Thursday. Although not as insane as the last storm, this next system could easily drop widespread 1.5+ inch totals across Southeast Missouri, and perhaps even 3+ inch totals to the north around St. Louis. This map from the NWS Weather Prediction Center shows estimated rainfall totals over the next 5 days by taking a consensus of the computer models: One particular computer model run, today's 12Z GFS, is very bullish about... Mon, 01 May 2017 16:05:58 -0500 Flood forecasts keep getting worse Since Sunday morning, the forecasts for many area rivers have been adjusted upward. And to make matters worse, additional rainfall (1 or 2 inches) appears likely for the middle of this week. Here is a roundup of area rivers as of Sunday evening at 10 PM: ** Van Buren The Current River appears to be cresting at Van Buren. It has reached 37.2 feet, obliterating the old record of 29 feet set in 1904. The damage at Van Buren could prove to be catastrophic. ** Doniphan At Doniphan, the Current... Sun, 30 Apr 2017 22:19:56 -0500 Record flooding imminent on Current and St. Francis rivers As feared, the computer models which projected epic rainfall across Southeast Missouri have come to fruition -- and then some. We've seen widespread 8+ inch totals, as depicted by this map of radar-estimated rainfall during the last 7 days. Here's a roundup of flood forecasts along area rivers: Van Buren The Current River at Van Buren is poised to shatter the previous record. In 1904, the river reached a stage of 29.0 feet. Right now the river has already exceeded that at... Sun, 30 Apr 2017 10:31:29 -0500 Mississippi River expected to reach major flood level at Cape Girardeau The latest river stage forecast was released this afternoon and shows a dramatic rise in the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau. The river, currently sitting at 30.5 ft., is now expected to jump to 40 ft. by Tuesday morning and then crest at around 43 ft. on Friday. This forecast takes into account the heavy rain poised to arrive this weekend. If the river does indeed hit 43.0 feet, it would represent the 12th highest crest on record at Cape Girardeau. (The all-time record came Jan. 2 of... Fri, 28 Apr 2017 13:29:32 -0500