Weather or Not http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/ en-us Heat Advisory issued for Wednesday through Sunday http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/69411 We've been fortunate that we haven't seen any major heat waves this summer, but that will change later this week as we experience high temperatures in the upper 90s combined with copious levels of humidity. A Heat Advisory goes into effect noon Wednesday and lasts through Sunday evening. The only silver lining is that the weather service opted to issue a Heat Advisory instead of a more serious Excessive Heat Warning for Southeast Missouri. Right now the temperature and heat index... Tue, 18 Jul 2017 15:35:22 -0500 Flash Flood Watch still in effect http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68923 Our Flash Flood Watch has been extended to Friday morning as more rain is on the way tonight and tomorrow. The computer models are still cranking out 3+ inch totals for the St. Louis area, with lesser amounts here. We should see dry weather for several days afterward. The text of the Flash Flood Watch states: A SECOND ROUND OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THIRD ROUND OF ENHANCED RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND... Wed, 03 May 2017 16:51:15 -0500 Flash Flood Watch issued; I-55 to be closed south of St. Louis http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68910 This is turning into a very bad case of déjà vu as our flooding situation at Cape Girardeau is playing out almost exactly the same as the January 2016 flood. Right now the forecast for the Mississippi River at Cape calls for a crest of 48.5 feet over the weekend, just inches below the January 2, 2016, all-time record of 48.86 feet. But yet another storm system is poised to bring more heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday. Right now it appears that we are likely to see 1.5-2.5 inches at Cape,... Tue, 02 May 2017 18:01:17 -0500 More rain on the way http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68892 Yet another round of heavy rain is poised to arrive Wednesday and Thursday. Although not as insane as the last storm, this next system could easily drop widespread 1.5+ inch totals across Southeast Missouri, and perhaps even 3+ inch totals to the north around St. Louis. This map from the NWS Weather Prediction Center shows estimated rainfall totals over the next 5 days by taking a consensus of the computer models: One particular computer model run, today's 12Z GFS, is very bullish about... Mon, 01 May 2017 16:05:58 -0500 Flood forecasts keep getting worse http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68883 Since Sunday morning, the forecasts for many area rivers have been adjusted upward. And to make matters worse, additional rainfall (1 or 2 inches) appears likely for the middle of this week. Here is a roundup of area rivers as of Sunday evening at 10 PM: ** Van Buren The Current River appears to be cresting at Van Buren. It has reached 37.2 feet, obliterating the old record of 29 feet set in 1904. The damage at Van Buren could prove to be catastrophic. ** Doniphan At Doniphan, the Current... Sun, 30 Apr 2017 22:19:56 -0500 Record flooding imminent on Current and St. Francis rivers http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68876 As feared, the computer models which projected epic rainfall across Southeast Missouri have come to fruition -- and then some. We've seen widespread 8+ inch totals, as depicted by this map of radar-estimated rainfall during the last 7 days. Here's a roundup of flood forecasts along area rivers: Van Buren The Current River at Van Buren is poised to shatter the previous record. In 1904, the river reached a stage of 29.0 feet. Right now the river has already exceeded that at... Sun, 30 Apr 2017 10:31:29 -0500 Mississippi River expected to reach major flood level at Cape Girardeau http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68862 The latest river stage forecast was released this afternoon and shows a dramatic rise in the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau. The river, currently sitting at 30.5 ft., is now expected to jump to 40 ft. by Tuesday morning and then crest at around 43 ft. on Friday. This forecast takes into account the heavy rain poised to arrive this weekend. If the river does indeed hit 43.0 feet, it would represent the 12th highest crest on record at Cape Girardeau. (The all-time record came Jan. 2 of... Fri, 28 Apr 2017 13:29:32 -0500 We might be seeing an awful lot of the "F" word soon http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68852 As I write this, a squall line of severe thunderstorms is passing through Southeast Missouri. But I'm more concerned about a threat that starts with the letter "F": flooding. The computer models have been projecting copious amounts of rainfall for later this week. The NWS Weather Prediction Center, using a blend of various computer models, currently paints a large area within the bullseye for 7+ inches of rain over the next five days. We've seen this kind of graphic... Wed, 26 Apr 2017 14:35:20 -0500 Everything is in the forecast http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68483 March is usually the peak season for weather insanity, and this year is no different. Just about every type of weather is possible during the next few days, including: unseasonable warmth, rain, thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, hail, snow, sleet, freezing rain, hard freeze, and a daylight-saving time change. After a sunny day in the 70s, this evening could bring thunderstorms. As of this writing, Cape Girardeau is in the "Marginal Risk" zone for severe thunderstorms, but areas... Thu, 09 Mar 2017 09:57:29 -0600 Moderate Risk of Severe Storms today; tornadoes looking more likely http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68422 We've been upgraded to a Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight. Large hail, high winds, and tornadoes are all possible, especially overnight. Of particular concern is the growing risk of tornadoes. The latest discussion from the Storm Prediction Center mentions the potential for "nocturnal significant tornadoes". Basically this means that strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater) could move through after dark, and that's never a good thing. Cape Girardeau is right in the middle of... Tue, 28 Feb 2017 12:07:52 -0600 Random photos of the Great Ice Storm of '17 http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68067 We narrowly missed an ugly situation this morning as the temperature at Cape Girardeau remained just warm enough -- barely -- to preclude freezing problems on the roads. The fact that the heaviest showers arrived during daylight hours also helped. As I write this, the temperature at the Cape airport has climbed to 33F and the ice is slowly dripping off the trees and power lines. Folks to the north and west are still in line for an epic ice storm. But this weekend the only thing we face is... Fri, 13 Jan 2017 13:27:54 -0600 Here comes the "F" word http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/68052 The "F" word -- freezing rain -- is in the forecast for Friday the 13th, but right now it appears that Cape Girardeau will just miss most of the ice. Areas to the north and west, however, might see another story. The probabilities from the Weather Prediction Center, based on a consensus of the computer models, put Cape right on the southeast edge of the ice blob. Central Missouri, particularly around Rolla, appears to be in the bullseye. The map below shows the probability of... Wed, 11 Jan 2017 17:03:20 -0600 No reason to get too excited about snow yet http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/67992 The "S" word is appearing in the forecast this week, but right now I'm skeptical that we'll get much. Current probabilities from the national Weather Prediction Center show that we have a 10-20% chance of receiving at least two inches of snow accumulation at Cape Girardeau over the next 3 days. Two systems are expected to pass through this week, but both are likely to miss us. The first disturbance on Wednesday night is projected to go slightly too far to the north. And the second system on... Tue, 03 Jan 2017 14:55:58 -0600 We're officially in a drought, but the pattern is changing http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/67660 The latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor website shows that Cape Girardeau is now within a "Moderate Drought" zone. Drought conditions extend all the way to the Gulf Coast, with large portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia experiencing "Extreme" or even "Exceptional" drought conditions. On the plus side, we actually have rain in the forecast as a cold front sweeps through on Friday. Although not expected to be heavy, any rain will help... Thu, 17 Nov 2016 16:30:02 -0600 Slight risk of severe storms on Wednesday http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/67389 Welcome to fall in Missouri, where we have to worry about the heat index and the wind chill factor in the same week. Our record heat wave will soon be replaced by below-normal temperatures. And a sudden change in temperatures this time of year usually means one thing: strong thunderstorms. Indeed, we're at the edge of a Slight Risk zone for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday. The forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center are concerned about the possibility that a few supercells could... Tue, 18 Oct 2016 17:51:14 -0500 Very heavy rain on the way http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/66784 A plume of tropical moisture from the Gulf is poised to deliver heavy rain to a large part of the country. Southeast Missouri is in the bullseye... of course. The latest projection from the NWS Weather Prediction Center -- based on a consensus of computer models -- paints a blob of 7+ inch rainfall totals between St. Louis and Cape Girardeau during the next week. As we all know, computer models can be rather fickle, but they have been showing impressive rainfall amounts for some time, and... Thu, 11 Aug 2016 17:04:30 -0500 Excessive Heat Warning issued: Oh joy! http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/66604 Our Heat Advisory has been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning through Sunday. A massive area from Missouri to Wisconsin and over to the Dakotas are now under the warning (shown in a purplish color on the map): Friday and Saturday are expected to be the hottest in Southeast Missouri, as temperatures rise into the upper 70s with ridiculous humidity levels. This will push the heat index to nearly 110. We should see a "cooldown" on Tuesday as high temperatures... Thu, 21 Jul 2016 11:25:13 -0500 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued; storms approaching from two directions http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/66451 Today is bringing a very peculiar weather situation as two blobs of storms are rapidly approaching Southeast Missouri from the west and the north. As I write this, the storms to the west have triggered several severe thunderstorm warnings in South Central Missouri, including reports of wind damage near Mansfield, Ava, Summersville, and Willow Springs. Meanwhile, a long line of storms from St. Louis to Indiana is sagging southward in our direction. That puts us right in the crosshairs. A... Wed, 06 Jul 2016 11:08:16 -0500 It's a once-in-a-lifetime event that will happen twice http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/66232 Officials in Perry County are promoting their favorable position for the upcoming total solar eclipse on Aug. 21, 2017. In the Perryville area, the sun will be totally blocked for roughly 2 minutes and 35 seconds. Cape Girardeau's location isn't quite as favorable -- the eclipse will last for approx. 1 minute and 47 seconds -- but that should still provide a spectacular scene (weather permitting). However, the 2017 eclipse is just a warm-up for an even better event coming in the next decade.... Thu, 09 Jun 2016 17:59:43 -0500 Wind Advisory + Winter Weather Advisory = Fun http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/65287 We're now under two different kinds of advisories from the National Weather Service: a Wind Advisory and a Winter Weather Advisory. Both last until 6 PM Wednesday. The Wind Advisory states that "sustained winds 20 to 30 MPH will be common...with frequent gusts 40 to 50 MPH." And the Winter Weather Advisory calls for heavy, wet snow on Wednesday. In their afternoon discussion, the forecasters at Paducah explain: CURRENT THINKING IS THE SNOW COULD COME DOWN HARD ENOUGH... Tue, 23 Feb 2016 16:21:25 -0600