Weather or Not en-us Random photos of the Great Ice Storm of '17 We narrowly missed an ugly situation this morning as the temperature at Cape Girardeau remained just warm enough -- barely -- to preclude freezing problems on the roads. The fact that the heaviest showers arrived during daylight hours also helped. As I write this, the temperature at the Cape airport has climbed to 33F and the ice is slowly dripping off the trees and power lines. Folks to the north and west are still in line for an epic ice storm. But this weekend the only thing we face is... Fri, 13 Jan 2017 13:27:54 -0600 Here comes the "F" word The "F" word -- freezing rain -- is in the forecast for Friday the 13th, but right now it appears that Cape Girardeau will just miss most of the ice. Areas to the north and west, however, might see another story. The probabilities from the Weather Prediction Center, based on a consensus of the computer models, put Cape right on the southeast edge of the ice blob. Central Missouri, particularly around Rolla, appears to be in the bullseye. The map below shows the probability of... Wed, 11 Jan 2017 17:03:20 -0600 No reason to get too excited about snow yet The "S" word is appearing in the forecast this week, but right now I'm skeptical that we'll get much. Current probabilities from the national Weather Prediction Center show that we have a 10-20% chance of receiving at least two inches of snow accumulation at Cape Girardeau over the next 3 days. Two systems are expected to pass through this week, but both are likely to miss us. The first disturbance on Wednesday night is projected to go slightly too far to the north. And the second system on... Tue, 03 Jan 2017 14:55:58 -0600 We're officially in a drought, but the pattern is changing The latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor website shows that Cape Girardeau is now within a "Moderate Drought" zone. Drought conditions extend all the way to the Gulf Coast, with large portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia experiencing "Extreme" or even "Exceptional" drought conditions. On the plus side, we actually have rain in the forecast as a cold front sweeps through on Friday. Although not expected to be heavy, any rain will help... Thu, 17 Nov 2016 16:30:02 -0600 Slight risk of severe storms on Wednesday Welcome to fall in Missouri, where we have to worry about the heat index and the wind chill factor in the same week. Our record heat wave will soon be replaced by below-normal temperatures. And a sudden change in temperatures this time of year usually means one thing: strong thunderstorms. Indeed, we're at the edge of a Slight Risk zone for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday. The forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center are concerned about the possibility that a few supercells could... Tue, 18 Oct 2016 17:51:14 -0500 Very heavy rain on the way A plume of tropical moisture from the Gulf is poised to deliver heavy rain to a large part of the country. Southeast Missouri is in the bullseye... of course. The latest projection from the NWS Weather Prediction Center -- based on a consensus of computer models -- paints a blob of 7+ inch rainfall totals between St. Louis and Cape Girardeau during the next week. As we all know, computer models can be rather fickle, but they have been showing impressive rainfall amounts for some time, and... Thu, 11 Aug 2016 17:04:30 -0500 Excessive Heat Warning issued: Oh joy! Our Heat Advisory has been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning through Sunday. A massive area from Missouri to Wisconsin and over to the Dakotas are now under the warning (shown in a purplish color on the map): Friday and Saturday are expected to be the hottest in Southeast Missouri, as temperatures rise into the upper 70s with ridiculous humidity levels. This will push the heat index to nearly 110. We should see a "cooldown" on Tuesday as high temperatures... Thu, 21 Jul 2016 11:25:13 -0500 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued; storms approaching from two directions Today is bringing a very peculiar weather situation as two blobs of storms are rapidly approaching Southeast Missouri from the west and the north. As I write this, the storms to the west have triggered several severe thunderstorm warnings in South Central Missouri, including reports of wind damage near Mansfield, Ava, Summersville, and Willow Springs. Meanwhile, a long line of storms from St. Louis to Indiana is sagging southward in our direction. That puts us right in the crosshairs. A... Wed, 06 Jul 2016 11:08:16 -0500 It's a once-in-a-lifetime event that will happen twice Officials in Perry County are promoting their favorable position for the upcoming total solar eclipse on Aug. 21, 2017. In the Perryville area, the sun will be totally blocked for roughly 2 minutes and 35 seconds. Cape Girardeau's location isn't quite as favorable -- the eclipse will last for approx. 1 minute and 47 seconds -- but that should still provide a spectacular scene (weather permitting). However, the 2017 eclipse is just a warm-up for an even better event coming in the next decade.... Thu, 09 Jun 2016 17:59:43 -0500 Wind Advisory + Winter Weather Advisory = Fun We're now under two different kinds of advisories from the National Weather Service: a Wind Advisory and a Winter Weather Advisory. Both last until 6 PM Wednesday. The Wind Advisory states that "sustained winds 20 to 30 MPH will be common...with frequent gusts 40 to 50 MPH." And the Winter Weather Advisory calls for heavy, wet snow on Wednesday. In their afternoon discussion, the forecasters at Paducah explain: CURRENT THINKING IS THE SNOW COULD COME DOWN HARD ENOUGH... Tue, 23 Feb 2016 16:21:25 -0600 Warm weather on the way After a few more days of chilliness, it appears that above-average temperatures will arrive next week. The forecast calls for highs in the 50s by next Thursday, and highs in the 60s on Friday. The warm spell could stick around for awhile: the 8-14 Day Outlook paints warmer than average temperatures over much of the country. In the meantime, we have more cold and snow coming this weekend. The computer models have been doing their usual flip-flopping, although it appears we will get some snow... Fri, 12 Feb 2016 17:41:34 -0600 First storm underdelivered, second storm may not deliver at all Late Tuesday night, one of the computer models showed us receiving an epic 18+ inches of snow by Friday. Now that same model shows us getting little if any additional snow. Why the difference? The track of the next storm has been pushed farther and farther to the south. It's now so far south that it could bring snow to northern Mississippi. To get a big snow here, storms typically need to track across southern Arkansas. That looked to be the case yesterday, but the consensus of... Wed, 20 Jan 2016 17:27:59 -0600 What a crazy forecast We've been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for tonight, with 3-5 inches of snow expected across a wide swath of Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois, and possibly more in isolated areas. The regional radar is already showing some activity, although it may be several hours before snowflakes start reaching the ground. In their warning, the National Weather Service in Paducah describes the timeline for this storm: SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND... Tue, 19 Jan 2016 12:56:32 -0600 Chance of snow this weekend, but not much to get excited about Our first chance of white stuff this year comes Saturday evening when rain is expected to give way to snow. These rain-changing-to-snow scenarios rarely pan out, as the below-freezing temperatures have a tendency to arrive about 3.2 seconds after the heavy precipitation has departed. This afternoon's forecast discussion from NWS Paducah explains, "The rain should mix and possibly turn over to snow later Saturday or Saturday evening. Right now the models suggest the dry air will come fast... Thu, 07 Jan 2016 15:59:00 -0600 Flooding Q&A Although we're not entirely out of the woods yet, the river is receding at a steady clip at Cape Girardeau, so hopefully we'll soon be able to return to our regularly scheduled discussion of snowstorms. In the meantime, here are some answers to questions that you might have about the flooding. ** How much higher did the river get versus the record? At Cape Girardeau, the previous record high stage was 48.49 feet set Aug. 8, 1993. This time, the river reached 48.86 feet at 10 PM on Jan.... Sun, 03 Jan 2016 21:10:42 -0600 Flash Flood Watch issued in anticipation of Illinois levee failures The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Jackson, Union, and Alexander counties in Illinois, to advise of potential levee problems. We really don't want to see this upgraded to a Flash Flood Warning. Here's the text of the watch: AT 7 PM...THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS AND STATE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED POTENTIALLY SERIOUS PROBLEMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVEE SYSTEM. WATER IS OVERTOPPING A LEVEE IN ALEXANDER COUNTY SOUTH OF... Fri, 01 Jan 2016 22:43:38 -0600 Cape and Thebes to shatter river stage records The latest river stage forecast now puts the Cape Girardeau crest at 50.0 ft., well above the 48.5 ft. all-time record. Although scary, the revised forecast does not pose a serious threat for the Cape Girardeau floodwall, which has a height of 54 feet on the gage. At Thebes, the forecast now calls for a crest of 49 ft., which would shatter the record of 45.9 ft. The only good news with the latest forecasts is that the Ohio River is trending not quite as high: the crest forecast at Cairo... Thu, 31 Dec 2015 18:01:32 -0600 River update: Lower crest forecast at Chester, but Cape and Thebes forecasts unchanged The latest round of river stage forecasts brought some good news for Chester and nearby areas, as the current projections have dropped the crest over two feet at Chester from previous forecasts. A revised crest of 47.5 is much better than 49.7. In addition, the river has actually stopped rising at the Chester gage, although this is only a temporary phenomenon. A statement from the National Weather Service in St. Louis explains: THIS MORNINGS RIVER MODEL RUN SHOWS DELAYED FLOWS FROM... Wed, 30 Dec 2015 15:59:18 -0600 Record flood stage still in forecast for Cape The latest forecast for the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau still shows the river could reach the all-time record stage of 48.5 ft. on Jan. 2. Downstream, the forecast for Thebes shows a crest of 47.5 ft. on that gage, which would shatter the old record of 45.9 ft. The situation is ridiculous upstream as well, where the forecast for the Chester gage continues to show a crest of 49.8 ft., just above the record of 49.7 ft. This stage could potentially overtop multiple levees on both the... Mon, 28 Dec 2015 17:56:57 -0600 Latest river forecast: We're likely to be witnessing history soon When I saw the number 48.5, I had to rub my eyes and double-check what I was seeing. But, yes, it's real: the latest forecast for the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau calls for a crest of 48.5 feet on Jan. 2 The all-time record is 48.49 feet set during the Not-So-Great Flood of 1993. Of course, river stage forecasts are not an exact science, but we appear to have a reasonable chance of tying or breaking the record. It will all depend on exactly how much additional rainfall drops... Sun, 27 Dec 2015 17:18:55 -0600