Weather or Not http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/ en-us We're officially in a drought, but the pattern is changing http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/67660 The latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor website shows that Cape Girardeau is now within a "Moderate Drought" zone. Drought conditions extend all the way to the Gulf Coast, with large portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia experiencing "Extreme" or even "Exceptional" drought conditions. On the plus side, we actually have rain in the forecast as a cold front sweeps through on Friday. Although not expected to be heavy, any rain will help... Thu, 17 Nov 2016 16:30:02 -0600 Slight risk of severe storms on Wednesday http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/67389 Welcome to fall in Missouri, where we have to worry about the heat index and the wind chill factor in the same week. Our record heat wave will soon be replaced by below-normal temperatures. And a sudden change in temperatures this time of year usually means one thing: strong thunderstorms. Indeed, we're at the edge of a Slight Risk zone for severe thunderstorms for Wednesday. The forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center are concerned about the possibility that a few supercells could... Tue, 18 Oct 2016 17:51:14 -0500 Very heavy rain on the way http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/66784 A plume of tropical moisture from the Gulf is poised to deliver heavy rain to a large part of the country. Southeast Missouri is in the bullseye... of course. The latest projection from the NWS Weather Prediction Center -- based on a consensus of computer models -- paints a blob of 7+ inch rainfall totals between St. Louis and Cape Girardeau during the next week. As we all know, computer models can be rather fickle, but they have been showing impressive rainfall amounts for some time, and... Thu, 11 Aug 2016 17:04:30 -0500 Excessive Heat Warning issued: Oh joy! http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/66604 Our Heat Advisory has been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning through Sunday. A massive area from Missouri to Wisconsin and over to the Dakotas are now under the warning (shown in a purplish color on the map): Friday and Saturday are expected to be the hottest in Southeast Missouri, as temperatures rise into the upper 70s with ridiculous humidity levels. This will push the heat index to nearly 110. We should see a "cooldown" on Tuesday as high temperatures... Thu, 21 Jul 2016 11:25:13 -0500 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued; storms approaching from two directions http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/66451 Today is bringing a very peculiar weather situation as two blobs of storms are rapidly approaching Southeast Missouri from the west and the north. As I write this, the storms to the west have triggered several severe thunderstorm warnings in South Central Missouri, including reports of wind damage near Mansfield, Ava, Summersville, and Willow Springs. Meanwhile, a long line of storms from St. Louis to Indiana is sagging southward in our direction. That puts us right in the crosshairs. A... Wed, 06 Jul 2016 11:08:16 -0500 It's a once-in-a-lifetime event that will happen twice http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/66232 Officials in Perry County are promoting their favorable position for the upcoming total solar eclipse on Aug. 21, 2017. In the Perryville area, the sun will be totally blocked for roughly 2 minutes and 35 seconds. Cape Girardeau's location isn't quite as favorable -- the eclipse will last for approx. 1 minute and 47 seconds -- but that should still provide a spectacular scene (weather permitting). However, the 2017 eclipse is just a warm-up for an even better event coming in the next decade.... Thu, 09 Jun 2016 17:59:43 -0500 Wind Advisory + Winter Weather Advisory = Fun http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/65287 We're now under two different kinds of advisories from the National Weather Service: a Wind Advisory and a Winter Weather Advisory. Both last until 6 PM Wednesday. The Wind Advisory states that "sustained winds 20 to 30 MPH will be common...with frequent gusts 40 to 50 MPH." And the Winter Weather Advisory calls for heavy, wet snow on Wednesday. In their afternoon discussion, the forecasters at Paducah explain: CURRENT THINKING IS THE SNOW COULD COME DOWN HARD ENOUGH... Tue, 23 Feb 2016 16:21:25 -0600 Warm weather on the way http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/65189 After a few more days of chilliness, it appears that above-average temperatures will arrive next week. The forecast calls for highs in the 50s by next Thursday, and highs in the 60s on Friday. The warm spell could stick around for awhile: the 8-14 Day Outlook paints warmer than average temperatures over much of the country. In the meantime, we have more cold and snow coming this weekend. The computer models have been doing their usual flip-flopping, although it appears we will get some snow... Fri, 12 Feb 2016 17:41:34 -0600 First storm underdelivered, second storm may not deliver at all http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64927 Late Tuesday night, one of the computer models showed us receiving an epic 18+ inches of snow by Friday. Now that same model shows us getting little if any additional snow. Why the difference? The track of the next storm has been pushed farther and farther to the south. It's now so far south that it could bring snow to northern Mississippi. To get a big snow here, storms typically need to track across southern Arkansas. That looked to be the case yesterday, but the consensus of... Wed, 20 Jan 2016 17:27:59 -0600 What a crazy forecast http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64908 We've been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for tonight, with 3-5 inches of snow expected across a wide swath of Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois, and possibly more in isolated areas. The regional radar is already showing some activity, although it may be several hours before snowflakes start reaching the ground. In their warning, the National Weather Service in Paducah describes the timeline for this storm: SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND... Tue, 19 Jan 2016 12:56:32 -0600 Chance of snow this weekend, but not much to get excited about http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64791 Our first chance of white stuff this year comes Saturday evening when rain is expected to give way to snow. These rain-changing-to-snow scenarios rarely pan out, as the below-freezing temperatures have a tendency to arrive about 3.2 seconds after the heavy precipitation has departed. This afternoon's forecast discussion from NWS Paducah explains, "The rain should mix and possibly turn over to snow later Saturday or Saturday evening. Right now the models suggest the dry air will come fast... Thu, 07 Jan 2016 15:59:00 -0600 Flooding Q&A http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64750 Although we're not entirely out of the woods yet, the river is receding at a steady clip at Cape Girardeau, so hopefully we'll soon be able to return to our regularly scheduled discussion of snowstorms. In the meantime, here are some answers to questions that you might have about the flooding. ** How much higher did the river get versus the record? At Cape Girardeau, the previous record high stage was 48.49 feet set Aug. 8, 1993. This time, the river reached 48.86 feet at 10 PM on Jan.... Sun, 03 Jan 2016 21:10:42 -0600 Flash Flood Watch issued in anticipation of Illinois levee failures http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64742 The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Jackson, Union, and Alexander counties in Illinois, to advise of potential levee problems. We really don't want to see this upgraded to a Flash Flood Warning. Here's the text of the watch: AT 7 PM...THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS AND STATE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED POTENTIALLY SERIOUS PROBLEMS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVEE SYSTEM. WATER IS OVERTOPPING A LEVEE IN ALEXANDER COUNTY SOUTH OF... Fri, 01 Jan 2016 22:43:38 -0600 Cape and Thebes to shatter river stage records http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64732 The latest river stage forecast now puts the Cape Girardeau crest at 50.0 ft., well above the 48.5 ft. all-time record. Although scary, the revised forecast does not pose a serious threat for the Cape Girardeau floodwall, which has a height of 54 feet on the gage. At Thebes, the forecast now calls for a crest of 49 ft., which would shatter the record of 45.9 ft. The only good news with the latest forecasts is that the Ohio River is trending not quite as high: the crest forecast at Cairo... Thu, 31 Dec 2015 18:01:32 -0600 River update: Lower crest forecast at Chester, but Cape and Thebes forecasts unchanged http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64710 The latest round of river stage forecasts brought some good news for Chester and nearby areas, as the current projections have dropped the crest over two feet at Chester from previous forecasts. A revised crest of 47.5 is much better than 49.7. In addition, the river has actually stopped rising at the Chester gage, although this is only a temporary phenomenon. A statement from the National Weather Service in St. Louis explains: THIS MORNINGS RIVER MODEL RUN SHOWS DELAYED FLOWS FROM... Wed, 30 Dec 2015 15:59:18 -0600 Record flood stage still in forecast for Cape http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64688 The latest forecast for the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau still shows the river could reach the all-time record stage of 48.5 ft. on Jan. 2. Downstream, the forecast for Thebes shows a crest of 47.5 ft. on that gage, which would shatter the old record of 45.9 ft. The situation is ridiculous upstream as well, where the forecast for the Chester gage continues to show a crest of 49.8 ft., just above the record of 49.7 ft. This stage could potentially overtop multiple levees on both the... Mon, 28 Dec 2015 17:56:57 -0600 Latest river forecast: We're likely to be witnessing history soon http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64675 When I saw the number 48.5, I had to rub my eyes and double-check what I was seeing. But, yes, it's real: the latest forecast for the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau calls for a crest of 48.5 feet on Jan. 2 The all-time record is 48.49 feet set during the Not-So-Great Flood of 1993. Of course, river stage forecasts are not an exact science, but we appear to have a reasonable chance of tying or breaking the record. It will all depend on exactly how much additional rainfall drops... Sun, 27 Dec 2015 17:18:55 -0600 Falling white things from the sky... but not snow http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64638 With unseasonable warmth expected during the next week, a White Christmas isn't in the cards. However, we could see something else that is frozen and white: hailstones. Tomorrow is poised to deliver two rounds of thunderstorms. The first round -- possibly with small hail and strong winds -- is expected to race through Southeast Missouri tomorrow morning. A second round is possible in the afternoon. This round is capable of stronger storms (supercells with large hail, high winds and... Tue, 22 Dec 2015 15:56:16 -0600 Rare December flooding on the way http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64602 The Mississippi River is rising fast at Cape Girardeau and will likely reach "moderate" flood stage, or 37 feet on the gage, early next week. A review of historical crests at Cape Girardeau shows that flooding during December is rare. Indeed, none of the top 30 crests at Cape have occurred during December. The closest was a 35.9 ft. crest on Jan. 8, 2005. Another round is wet weather is expected to arrive Sunday night and bring on-and-off chances for rain through at least Christmas Eve.... Thu, 17 Dec 2015 16:58:58 -0600 White Christmas outlook not too good http://www.semissourian.com/blogs/weather/entry/64564 We didn't just break temperature records over the weekend -- we obliterated them. On Saturday, the Cape airport hit 71F, breaking the previous record of 65 from 1991. Sunday also surpassed the record by 6 degrees: we hit 70 and the previous record was 64 from 1984. The biggest record to fall, though, was the low temperature on Saturday: we only dropped to 63. On every previous Dec. 12th, the temperature had dropped to 51 or lower. So the low temperature was 12 degrees higher than... Mon, 14 Dec 2015 10:24:51 -0600