Another chance of ice and snow: Time to break out the dartboard

This winter has made a mockery of weather forecasters. When everything points toward a decent winter storm, we get squat. Then when everything seems calm, like yesterday, we get a surprise snow burst.

The next big storm, arriving sometime on Tuesday, is poised to bring a mixed bug of fun in the form of sleet, freezing rain, and snow. Based on the recent poor performance of the computer models, any forecast is likely to be indistinguishable from throwing darts at a dartboard:

Cape Girardeau is right on the axis that could see the heaviest freezing rain. As usual, any slight change in the storm's path and strength could spell a major change in the outcome. A graphic posted this afternoon on Twitter by the National Weather Service illustrates the problem:

If the storm shifts south, then we get air colder, which means more snow and less ice. But we'd also see less available moisture, so the snow would be limited.

If the storm shift north, then we see much more moisture, but it would be more likely to fall as plain old liquid rain.

So let's hope the storm does shift: I think we'd rather see light snow or heavy rain versus the current prospects of getting moderate ice. The official NWS forecast for Cape calls for "Snow accumulations up to 1 inch. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch."

The weather service hasn't issued any watches, warnings, or advisories yet, but that could change. But who knows?