Freezing fog, then unseasonable warmth, then a potential snowstorm

Today's fog on the Cape riverfront

We all know the old joke about Missouri weather: "If you don't like it, just wait an hour."

That's definitely true this week as we go from one extreme to the other and back again. First, temperatures tonight are expected to drop just below freezing at Cape Girardeau. Today's lovely fog will become tonight's freezing fog, and that could lead to some nasty surprises for unaware drivers early in the morning.

By Wednesday, strong south winds will usher in a much warmer airmass, and we are expected to see temperatures in the 50s. We could theoretically reach the 60s on Thursday, but cloud cover is expected to put a damper on the heat wave.

And then the bottom drops out. Warm rain during the day Thursday is predicted to turn into a wintry mix sometime overnight, ending as snow Friday.

In this afternoon's forecast discussion, the prognosticators at NWS Paducah explained, "MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO HOW ALL OF THIS WILL PLAY OUT, WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS FROM LIQUID TO FROZEN. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE A RELATIVELY STRONG SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT."

Personally, I'm ambivalent toward rain-changing-to-snow scenarios, as these forecasts have a high risk of being a total bust. Often, the cold air doesn't arrive as quickly as the computer models suggested, and the temperature takes its sweet time dropping to 32°F. When it finally does, the precipitation is long gone.

On the other hand, the track of the storm does look favorable for snow (as of right now). I'm not saying you should rush out and buy milk and bread. But if your milk and bread stocks are low, now would be a good time to beat the rush in case we do reach BREADCON 3 later this week.

On Saturday, a clipper system could bring a bonus round of snow, followed by another Arctic airmass. The cold temperatures mean that any snow (or sleet) accumulations should stick around for awhile.