Wind Advisory + Winter Weather Advisory = Fun

Will we see a repeat of last week's massive snowflakes? The odds look good.

We're now under two different kinds of advisories from the National Weather Service: a Wind Advisory and a Winter Weather Advisory. Both last until 6 PM Wednesday.

The Wind Advisory states that "sustained winds 20 to 30 MPH will be common...with frequent gusts 40 to 50 MPH."

And the Winter Weather Advisory calls for heavy, wet snow on Wednesday. In their afternoon discussion, the forecasters at Paducah explain:

CURRENT THINKING IS THE SNOW COULD COME DOWN HARD ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES, ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE WARM ANTECEDENT ROAD CONDITIONS AND TEMPS HOVERING ABOVE FREEZING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, FEEL AT THIS POINT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS WARRANTED TO COVER SLUSHY IMPACTS ON SOME ROADWAYS IN THE MORE INTENSE PRECIP. THE ADVISORY, AT THIS POINT WILL BE MAINLY FOR OUR SE MO AND SRN IL COUNTIES. AGAIN, ANY SMALL SHIFT EAST OR WEST WITH THE LOW PATH COULD BRING BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY, THE JURY JUST HAS NOT QUITE REACHED A UNANIMOUS VERDICT ON THIS ONE. ADJUSTMENTS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE MADE, SO WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH EXACT AMOUNTS OR IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

The combination of falling snow and high winds puts us close to blizzard conditions. The official definition for a Blizzard Warning requires sustained winds of 35 mph with visibility reduced to less than a quarter-mile. The forecast isn't quite that bad, but it's going to be rough outside.

As usual, the computer models are struggling with this storm, with some model runs putting the axis of heavy snow to our northwest, some painting the snow right on top of us, and some even shifting it to the southeast. The other difficulty is the warm ground: we might see plenty of snowflakes, but it's an open question how much will actually stick.

No matter what, the snow will be gone by this weekend as temperatures soar into the 60s again.