What a crazy forecast
We've been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for tonight, with 3-5 inches of snow expected across a wide swath of Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois, and possibly more in isolated areas.
The regional radar is already showing some activity, although it may be several hours before snowflakes start reaching the ground.
In their warning, the National Weather Service in Paducah describes the timeline for this storm:
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND BORDERING MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOCALES OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... THREATENING SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY...BY MIDNIGHT.AFTER MIDNIGHT...EVERYONE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD MIX WITH SLEET... ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH.
THE SNOW WILL STILL BE GOING PRETTY GOOD AROUND DAYBREAK INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE AREA OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...BUT WILL BE GENERALLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS... ENDING BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
With temperatures currently in the low 20s, the ground is plenty frozen to allow for efficient accumulations. Luckily it appears that the atmosphere will be too cold to allow for any freezing rain, although sleet is possible.
So that's the first storm.
A second, potentially stronger, storm is poised to arrive Thursday and last into Friday. Temperatures will be warmer, especially Thursday afternoon, so just about anything could fall from the sky.
Right now, the forecast for Cape Girardeau shows the precip evolving as follows: Snow, freezing rain, liquid rain, freezing rain, and finally ending as all snow. (The forecast doesn't mention sleet but presumably that would be mixed in as well.)
The second system is too far away to worry too much about possible accumulations, although the graphics on the NWS Weather Prediction Center website do show that we have a 10% probability of seeing at least 4 inches.
Both of these systems are expected to follow very favorable tracks for heavy snow, with the low-pressure centers crossing southern Arkansas. It's quite rare to have such a perfect one-two punch.
I hesitate to pay too much attention to the flip-flopping computer models for both storms.
Oh, who am I kidding? Let's have a look anyway, just for grins.
The latest GFS model run puts Cape Girardeau at the 6 inch line (total for both storms), with slightly higher amounts to the south.
The most recent NAM model is rather bizarre, showing only 4 inches at Cape, but painting a ridiculous area of 18+ inch totals just northeast of Paducah.
That seems hard to believe. I've found in the past that the NAM model can be totally out to lunch. But it did project large totals for the snowstorms we had last February and March -- and those delivered.
At any rate, it seems a safe bet that we will see white stuff tonight. And again later in the week.
If you don't like snow, then you may not have to wait too long to be rid of it: the 8-14 Day outlook leans heavily toward above-average temperatures.
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