Latest river forecast: We're likely to be witnessing history soon

When I saw the number 48.5, I had to rub my eyes and double-check what I was seeing.

But, yes, it's real: the latest forecast for the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau calls for a crest of 48.5 feet on Jan. 2

The all-time record is 48.49 feet set during the Not-So-Great Flood of 1993. Of course, river stage forecasts are not an exact science, but we appear to have a reasonable chance of tying or breaking the record. It will all depend on exactly how much additional rainfall drops here and to our north.

Meanwhile, the situation is even more ominous upstream. At Chester, the forecasted crest of 49.8 feet would exceed the '93 record of 49.74.

According to the Flood Warning issued for Chester, a stage of 49.8 feet would overtop multiple levees: Degognia, Fountain Bluff, Stringtown and Prairie du Rocher. It would be only inches away from the top of levees protecting Ste. Genevieve, Fort de Chartres, and Kaskasia Island.

Road closures are a sure thing: IL Highway 3 south of Chester, MO Highway 51 approaching the Mississippi River Bridge, and US Highway 61 south of Ste. Genevieve will all easily flood.

One silver lining is that the river should rise and fall quickly. This is a major difference from '93, when the river remained high for most of that summer, causing so much prolonged misery. On the other hand, the surprise jump in the river stage doesn't leave much time for preparations.

The Ohio River is also flooding, although at this point it appears that the water level at Cairo won't quite reach the level where the Corps of Engineers would want to blow the levee at Birds Point again.

But not by much.