All eyes are on Wednesday for severe thunderstorms

It's been awhile since we've seen some quality thunderstorms. That could change Wednesday afternoon as the national Storm Prediction Center has already placed Southeast Missouri in the bullseye for an "Enhanced" risk of severe storms (which is more than "Slight" but less than "Moderate").

An email sent this morning to the NWS Paducah storm spotters mailing list best sums up the forecast:

Our current outlook for Wednesday/Veterans Day has most of us at an "Enhanced" risk level as of this writing. This is the greatest risk for our region since July 13. This is forecast to be a very dynamic and rapidly intensifying system which could yield both an enhanced damaging wind threat and a risk of a few tornadoes. Based on current forecasts the main time period of concern is Wednesday afternoon (mainly SE MO and SW IL) and Wednesday evening (generally along and E of the Mississippi River). In addition, we are forecasting strong gradient winds averaging close to 20 mph Wednesday and Wednesday night with gusts at or above 30 mph.

Don't panic

Before we get too carried away, however, there are a couple of factors that could limit the severe weather threat. First, the storms are not expected to have much moisture available. This morning's outlook from the Storm Prediction Center states, in their usual dry technical fashion, "The tornado threat is more conditional due to the marginal quality of the moist sector."

The current rainfall projections keep us below a quarter-inch, which is pretty low for any kind of thunderstorm outbreak:

Although the system is expected to have "impressive" wind shear -- an important ingredient for producing severe weather -- the forecasters at Paducah are wondering if maybe the wind shear will be too strong. In their latest forecast discussion, they state, "However, we have encountered times where very large shear values actually can be detrimental, and the storms tend to get 'ripped apart'. Not sure if that will be the case in this situation, but something to keep in mind."

Don McNeely

As you've no doubt heard, Southeast Missouri's most well-known weather forecaster has passed away.

In the early 1990s, not long before his retirement, I distinctly remember one evening where he was talking about an ongoing storm outbreak -- not unlike the storms we could see this week. He showed a national radar map filled with menacing red cells and tornado watches stretching across most of the Midwest, and heading in our direction. After pausing for a moment while looking at the map, he casually said, "In all my years of broadcasting, I've never seen so many watches in effect at the same time."

Now if that statement didn't get everybody's attention, nothing would! It was a classic example of his way of calmly persuading the TV audience to pay attention to a looming threat of severe weather, but without hyping or sensationalizing the risk.

NWS to host winter weather workshop in Cape on Thursday

Representatives from the National Weather Service in Paducah will be conducting a workshop Thursday morning, Nov. 12, at the Osage Center. Topics will include "past El Nino winters and their local impacts, a review of the major winter storms from last winter, tornado and severe weather outlook climatology and much more."

See this webpage for more info and a registration form.