The forecast isn't getting any better
I was hoping to wake up this morning and find that the forecast had shifted to either snow or liquid rain instead of freezing rain. Of course we can't be that lucky.
We're now under a Winter Storm Watch -- no surprise there -- as our next weathermaker is looking more and more like an ice storm. The dart on the Dartboard Forecast System is clearly headed to Icepocalypse, although it could still change. The system is already looking pretty ominous as it approaches the West Coast:
The official forecast from the National Weather Service is still coy about total amounts, but this morning's discussion does state: "STORM TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH ICE ACCUMULATION BETWEEN ONE HALF AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AREA WIDE."
"Impressive" is not exactly the kind of word you want to see mentioned in connection with an ice storm. The current projections show over 1.25 inches of precipitation (liquid equivalent) falling at Cape Girardeau in some form, with even more just to the south.
Of course, it's easy to be jaded based on previous storms which turned out to be far less impressive in reality than the computer models had projected. However, this storm has all of the ingredients for a classic sucker-punching ice storm. In particular, the temperature is expected to plummet Saturday night and then remain well below freezing during the period of heaviest precipitation Sunday into Sunday night. That's something that the last storms have lacked.
So how will this storm compare to the historic ice storms of 2008 and 2009? Probably not quite as bad -- but still bad enough.
In 2008, we had a mix of heavy sleet and freezing rain, accompanied by lightning strikes, that lasted all day and night. The axis of heaviest ice accumulation (well over an inch) passed through rural Cape Girardeau County. In 2009, Cape had more sleet and snow, with the axis of heaviest freezing rain just to the south - but what an axis it was!
Depending on exactly which model run you want to study, Cape could have more ice than sleet (like 2008) or more sleet than ice (like 2009). Total precipitation will likely be lower than either of those storms, although all bets are off if we can get some thunder going -- a distinct possibility. The Storm Prediction Center outlook indicates that thunderstorms are possible (in the green area). Keep in mind that March is traditionally the peak season for winter storms with thunder in the U.S.
The latest graphics show that Cape has nearly a 10% chance of receiving over an inch of ice from this storm. The chances increase to over 20% for a corridor from Jonesboro, Arkansas, to Paducah, Kentucky -- the area hit hardest by the 2009 ice storm.
Meanwhile, the storm could still bring some snow as it departs. Cape sits right at the southern edge of the snow field with almost a 40% chance of receiving at least 2 inches.
Naturally, the storm could turn out radically different than expected. A butterfly might flap its wings causing the storm to shift to the south, giving us mostly snow. Or the hot air from politicians in Jefferson City could cause the storm to be warmer than expected, giving us mostly liquid rain. And of course we might not get anything at all. Who knows.
The only thing we can be certain about: The BREADCON level continues to climb.
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